Shaniko Oregon Weather Forecast Discussion

208
FXUS66 KPDT 070513
AFDPDT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
1013 PM PDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Updated Aviation Discussion
.AVIATION...06Z TAFs...Mostly VFR conditions to prevail through
the period. Smoke will bring periodic MVFR haze impacts to site
YKM in the morning to early afternoon tomorrow. Winds will be
light, 12kts or less, and diurnally driven through the period.
Lawhorn/82
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 422 PM PDT Mon Oct 6 2025/
.DISCUSSION...Clear skies prevail across the PacNW this
afternoon, save for some patchy haze and smoke along the central
WA Cascades as area wildfires continue to burn. High pressure will
otherwise make for quiet weather through the midweek. Overnight
lows will be chilly once again, flirting with and even dropping
below freezing across our elevated valleys, but with many such
areas seeing a season- ending freeze last night (namely central
Oregon, the John Day Basin, Wallowa Valley, and Grande Ronde
Valley), Freeze Warnings are not anticipated. The Kittitas Valley
in particular dropped below freezing last night, and could once
again tonight, however confidence is low (20%) as temps will be
higher during the day today compared to yesterday. Did make
mention of patchy frost in the area overnight tonight, however.
Around Wednesday, high pressure will move out as a broad low
pressure system stemming from the Gulf of Alaska will drop down and
become nearly stationary just off the Pacific coast, making for
persistent PoPs across at least the Cascades and east slopes
Wednesday and Thursday. The low will retrograde slightly before
making its onshore push next weekend, making for more widespread
precip chances. Will this finally be what kills off the remaining
wildfires in the region? NBM does seem relatively confident (70-80%)
in QPF over half an inch for the Cascades, with areas over 5500 ft
potentially seeing some light snow as well with this low pulling in
colder air. NBM isn`t quite as confident in wetting rains across the
lower elevations (30-40%) through next weekend, but we are rapidly
approaching the time of year where all we need is a decent,
widespread wetting rain over a quarter of an inch to put an end to
wildfire season for the year.
Ensembles are in pretty good agreement on this low being the
dominant synoptic feature of the next week, only diverging early
next week once the low finally shifts out of the region. As a
result, expect a cloudy, cool, and wet forecast to dominate after
Tuesday as autumn really starts to settle in over the region.
Evans/74
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  40  75  44  72 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  44  74  49  73 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  37  71  41  73 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  41  72  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  38  73  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  37  70  39  65 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  30  76  35  69 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  35  71  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  36  73  38  76 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  44  76  46  67 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...82

NWS PDT Office Area Forecast Discussion