Shamokin, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

181
FXUS62 KCAE 281037
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
637 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions expected during the day today with shower
chances returning tonight as a tropical system approaches the
Southeast. Locally heavy rainfall remains possible to start the
week as the tropical depression continues moving northward. High
pressure then moves into the region, bringing cool and dry
conditions to the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Patchy dense fog this morning.
- Dry with near normal temps today.
- Shower chances return tonight as a tropical system approaches
  the Southeast.
Today: Patchy dense fog this morning, with some visibilities
dropping to a quarter mile at times, is expected to gradually
dissipate shortly after sunrise. Otherwise, upper level trough
continues to move eastward and lift northward while surface high
pressure starts moving into the region. As a result, partly
sunny, near normal temps, and dry conditions can be expected.
Cloud cover from the tropical system located near Cuba this
morning begins to increase late in the afternoon as that system
starts moving northward.
Tonight: The well-advertised tropical system continues moving
north overnight bringing rain chances back to the region from
east to west. There remains some question on when the rain
enters into the eastern Midlands/lower CSRA and how far west
rain gets before Monday morning as there is some uncertainty in
how fast the system moves northward.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Cloudy, cool, and rainy conditions expected as moisture
  streams northward from TD 9.
- Total rainfall is expected to be anywhere from 0.5"-2" across
  our eastern areas, with rain totals decreasing gradually west.
Guidance has continued to hone in on a likely track for TD 9 and the
impacts across our area through mid week. Overall, the synoptic
pattern is quite similar to what we have been expecting. TD9 is
forecast to intensify into a tropical storm sometime today,
gradually intensifying as it moves northward and situates itself in
the right-entrance region of the upper level jet streak across our
area. Meanwhile, Major Hurricane Humberto will continue to chug
westward, gradually turning north and then northeastward by Tuesday
night. As this occurs, the two tropical cyclones are forecast to
begin influencing each other`s paths, with TD9 basically slowing
somewhere southeast of the SC coast by Monday and Tuesday.
Humberto`s pull on TD9 is expected to yield a hard right turn into
the Atlantic, especially as a strong surface high pushes into the
northeastern and mid-atlantic parts of the CONUS.
While a direct landfall is unlikely, we still are expecting impacts
across the area. The trough axis across the southern Appalachians
should be neutral to negatively tilted, favoring moisture advection
into the eastern half of the forecast area on Monday and Tuesday.
Widespread showers are forecast to develop on both days, with
widespread cloud cover as well. Rain totals are definitely less than
they would have been had TC 9 made a closer pass to the area. But we
also are looking at a fairly stable airmass in place both days with
copious cloud cover & northeasterly winds. This will likely keep
convection at bay, with rain remaining mostly stratiform in nature.
Given how dry we have been lately, rain totals of 0.5"-2" across the
eastern forecast area will actually be quite beneficial. Highs both
days should be well below normal, with temps forecast in the low to
mid 70s. There may be some folks that get into the upper 60s and
stay there given the strong northeasterly flow and clouds/rain.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Increasingly dry and cool conditions are expected through the
  end of the week.
By Wednesday, guidance is in good agreement that TD9 will begin to
make its turn to the east as Humberto pulls it quickly
northeastward. The best moisture will likely shift off to our
east, with dry air beginning to envelope the southeastern CONUS.
A sunny day is expected, with warmer temps in the upper 70s
expected ahead of an approaching backdoor cold front. This is
actually expected to be one of the drivers of the weather
through the end of the week. A strong surface high pressure
system is forecast to shift into the northeastern US, ridging
down along the eastern side of the Appalachians from Thursday
through the weekend. Guidance is showing well below normal 850
hPa temps associated with this along with PWs around 50-70% of
normal. As a result, our first taste of fall looks to be on tap
by the end of the period! Highs and lows look to be below
normal, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Restrictions gradually improving this morning, followed by VFR
conditions until late in the period.
Observations and satellite indicate stratus and patchy dense fog
this morning. IFR to LIFR cigs can be expected for a few hours
before improving after about 15z. In addition, reduced
visibilities, including to a mile or less at fog prone AGS and
OGB. The other terminals could see visibilities less than a
mile as well. Improvements expected after sunrise. VFR
conditions are then expected into tonight before shower chances
begin moving back into the area late in the period along with
the potential for lowered cigs.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Deep moisture remains in place into
early week with rain chances returning to start the week.
Restrictions each morning will be possible.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$

NWS CAE Office Area Forecast Discussion