Seneca, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

661
FXUS63 KTOP 091837
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
137 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Sunny and mild rest of the day today before next rain/storm
chances (20-30%) return Wednesday morning and afternoon.
- Temperatures Thursday and into early next week expected to be
  above-normal as high temperatures top out in the upper 80s and
  low 90s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
A cloudy and rainy morning has quickly changed to a sunny and
pleasant afternoon as another mid-level wave passes off to our east,
ushering out the rain and clouds. Expect the remainder of the
afternoon to remain pleasant as temperatures top out in the mid to
upper 70s with some reaching the low 80s. By Wednesday morning,
another weak mid-level perturbation enters central Kansas with weak
isentropic ascent along a 30-35 kt LLJ across southwestern Kansas.
Most guidance tracks the perturbation across central Kansas and into
southeastern Kansas by the early afternoon Wednesday, so expected
most showers and isolated storms that do develop stay across western
portions of the area (central Kansas). There will be some elevated
instability and modest ML lapse rates as the wave passes, so cannot
rule out some isolated storms within precipitation but PoPs still
remain low at this time as confidence is not overly high in
widespread precipitation. Leaned towards the lower side of maxT
guidance Wednesday to account for lingering cloud cover and
precipitation during peak heating.
By Wednesday night and into Thursday morning, another weak wave
crests over the deepening 500mb ridge and brings another small (20%)
chance for showers and storms. CAMs at this range are not in any
sort of agreement in if and where precipitation will develop, but it
does seem that the nocturnal LLJ nose will set up across central to
east-central Kansas early Thursday morning, so this could act as an
additional forcing mech for precipitation. PoPs remain low due to
overall low confidence and high uncertainty.
By Thursday and into next week, mid-level ridging builds across the
central Plains and brings another late summer warmup. Expect high
temperatures over this time period to top out in the upper 80s and
low 90s. The next appreciable rain chance may come Sunday with a
negatively-tilted trough extending down from the northern Rockies.
Next week looks fairly active with small perturbations moving
through the flow, but a breakdown of the overall warm pattern does
not seem to stand out at this point. Cluster analysis at this range
keeps near equal chances for ridging to continue over the central
Plains with other chances bringing a deep Canadian low across the
northern Plains and Great Lakes providing relief from heat. Lots of
variety in the extended forecast at this time because of all this.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
MVFR stratus and rain has moved out of the terminals with
expectations to remain VFR through the period. Some scattered to
broken decks of 4kft cu may develop this afternoon and evening
per forecast soundings, but not anticipating much lower. There
will be some low-end chances for showers and VCTS later
Wednesday morning, mainly near KMHK, but confidence is low in
this occurring so kept out of TAFs at this time.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Griesemer

NWS TOP Office Area Forecast Discussion