Selby, South Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

723
FXUS63 KABR 270445
AFDABR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1145 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Windy conditions ahead of and behind a passing cold front will
  persist this evening into the overnight hours. Gusts will range
  between 20 and 30 mph as winds switch from the south to the
  northwest behind the frontal passage.
- Above normal readings, windy and dry conditions will return for
  the end of the weekend into the first half of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
No significant changes are expected to the ongoing forecast. As
of 600 PM, winds remained out of the south over eastern SD ahead
of the cold front. Winds near and west of the MO River had shifted
out of the west-northwest with gusts of 25-35kts. The cold front
will continue to shift east and across the rest of our forecast
area by around 06Z, with winds then slowly relaxing over central
SD. Elevated smoke was noted over mainly eastern MT into far
western ND/SD. Several EPA sensors are in the low end moderate
range (yellow) over the area. Looking at the latest forecast
guidance for smoke, most of the near surface smoke will sink south
across western portions of SD this evening.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Mid afternoon satellite analysis across the region indicates mostly
clear skies across most of the forecast area with only just a few
high cirrus clouds drifting into south central SD from the
southwest. Farther west, a southwest to northeast band of mid to
high clouds across the western Dakotas is indicative of a sfc cold
front that is making its way into the area. Gusty southerly winds
ahead of this feature, especially in the James and Big Sioux
Valleys, have been on the order of 20-30 mph at times this
afternoon. This has helped boost our temperature readings into the
low to mid 80s.
As we approach the evening hours, the aforementioned cold front will
continue to shift from west to east across the forecast area. Those
gusty southerly winds will turn to the west and northwest behind the
front, occurring first across our western CWA late this afternoon and
then during the early evening hours across northeast SD and west
central MN. This is pretty much all this fropa will deliver for our
forecast area. There is no moisture associated with it, so dry
conditions will prevail. One thing that will change as a result of
it will be our temperatures. Both temperatures and dew point
temperatures will fall in its wake. A cold air advection pattern
sets up with the help of low level winds 925mb wind speeds between
30-40 knots in the wake of the fropa will usher in the drier, cooler
air mass. The influx of this drier air mass will lead to a cooler
overnight as temperatures fall into the mid to upper 40s by daybreak
Saturday. There may be a few low 50s hanging on across our far
eastern zones. The temperature fall may be a function of how winds
behave overnight. Do anticipate wind speeds will remain elevated in
a general 10-15 knot sustained range with gusts between 20-25 knots
at times should keep the atmosphere stirred enough to prohibit a
quick fall in readings after sunset.
Sfc high pressure will build into the region on Saturday helping to
curtail any leftover breezes. It is progged to move and sit right
over the top of the forecast area during the day. This will lead to
light and variable winds and maintain the mostly sunny conditions
with a cooler air mass in place. Daytime highs Saturday will range
close to late September normals in the low to mid 70s. A few locales
in our far east may hold in the upper 60s. This high will shift east
of our area Saturday night into Sunday as upper ridging builds in
across the Northern Plains. This will help to draw in a warmer air
mass once again with an above normal temperature trend returning.
Medium to longer range guidance is in fair agreement that this will
be the going trend into the first half of next week. The upper air
pattern during the time frame will feature an upper trough that will
work into the region from the southwest. This monsoonal like feature
should help to draw in some higher moisture values into the region,
at the very least increased mid level moisture. Doesn`t look like
enough to lead to any pcpn for our area through mid week, outside of
a slim chance at an isolated shower. The sfc pattern will feature
high pressure anchored to our east and a lee side low pressure
system to our west. A tightening pressure gradient between the 2 will
lead to a few windy days through mid week. This pattern looks to
also effectively draw in some low level moisture back into our area
with dew point temperatures returning to the 50s to near 60 degrees.
This should help mitigate to some extent any fire weather concerns
that may develop during those warm and windy days that are expected
through Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Mainly
elevated smoke remains over western SD, and will continue to sink
south overnight into Friday morning. Most EPA sensors are in the
low end moderate range (yellow) over the area, but visibility
restrictions at the surface have not been noted. The mention of
smoke remains out of the TAFs at this time due to the limited
impacts and no reduction in visibility.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...Vipond
AVIATION...06

NWS ABR Office Area Forecast Discussion