Sebastopol, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

700
FXUS64 KHGX 261755
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1255 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
- Dry air, partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies, and near to
  slightly above average temperatures are forecast through the
  weekend and much of next week.
- There is a less than 10% chance of a light and brief shower
  this afternoon for most locations, and a 20% chance of showers
  tonight and tomorrow for our marine zones.
- Use extra caution when using open flames or equipment that can
  cause sparks for the next several days due to very dry air each
  afternoon.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
A much drier airmass has moved into the region, particularly in
the mid and upper levels, with surface dewpoints generally in the
high 50s and low 60s. Diurnal cumulus should develop over much of
the region this afternoon. Despite the strongly subsident airmass
aloft, forecast soundings indicate a narrow corridor of
convective instability at the top of the boundary layer beneath
the subsidence inversion. While we do not have any precip
explicitly mentioned in the forecast, there is a less than 10%
chance of a light and brief shower under any of the more "hearty"
cumulus. Otherwise, it should be a pretty nice day. Speaking of
low precipitation chances, recent hi-res guidance has started to
hint at a weak surface trough moving in from the northeast late
tonight/tomorrow. The extra ascent should be able to develop a few
light showers over the gulf, so we have added 20% PoPs for our
marine zones late tonight and tomorrow to account for this
potential.
High pressure building over the region will dominate the local
weather into early next week. With this, temperatures should
hover around the seasonal norms through the weekend into early
next week (highs +/- a few degrees of 90). Broadly speaking, east
to northeast low-level flow should keep deep tropical moisture
locked in the gulf, however diurnal seabreeze circulations will
cause daily jumps and dives in dewpoint for our coastal and near-
coastal locations. Unless you`re a coastal zone/county, the next
several days will be quite dry with afternoon RH falling between
30-35% each day. Light winds will preclude an elevated fire
threat, but its still worth exercising caution if you are using
open flames or equipment that can cause sparks.
Global ensemble guidance is starting to indicate the potential of
warmer temperatures at the end of next week. Current EFI (ECMWF
Extreme Forecast Index) indicates 60-80% of the ECMWF ensemble
members have well above-normal high temperature values next
Thursday and Friday. Temperatures between 5-10 degrees above
normal are most likely at this point, which wouldn`t break any
records, but would still be noteworthy warmth for early October.
Bonnette
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Mostly VFR conditions and light winds expected through the TAF
period. Winds generally from the north today before becoming
variable. Winds more variable at the coast. Could have more clouds
and a passing SHRA at the coast during the morning hours tomorrow.
For now, we are just including a few low clouds at GLS but
remaining VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Relatively light northeast flow is expected through the afternoon
today. There is a 10% chance of an isolated shower today, but any
precipitation would be light and brief. Precip chances are higher
after midnight through tomorrow as a weak surface trough moves
across the area from northeast to southwest. Brief gusty winds (up
to 20 kts) and about 20% coverage of showers is possible. Outside
of precipitation, the winds tomorrow will be out of the northeast
around 8-12 kts. A broad area of low pressure in the southern gulf
this weekend will help strengthen the winds locally to around
10-15 kts with slightly choppy conditions possible Sunday and
Monday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  89  63  90  62 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  89  68  90  68 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  87  76  87  76 /   0  10  10   0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Bonnette
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Bonnette

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion