Seal Cove, Maine Weather Forecast Discussion

205
FXUS61 KCAR 232229
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
629 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front continues slowly crossing the state and will be
over the Gulf of Maine tonight. High pressure then builds over
the region through Wednesday, then moves offshore Wednesday
night. Low pressure will approach from the west Thursday, cross
the region Thursday night, then exit across the Maritimes
Friday. A cold front will cross the region Saturday night into
Sunday. High pressure will build toward the region later Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
6:30 PM Update...The southwestern end of an upper trough moving
across the north continues to produce some spotty low top
convective showers across the north. Extended these showers
into early evening.
Previous discussion...
A cold front is working through the state this afternoon with a
batch of light rain mainly in the Central Highlands nearing
Bangor region. The boundary layer is rather dry so precipitation
is very light and just barely wetting the surfaces. Some
locations may struggle to get any precipitation as things may
just be Virga. The cold front will push offshore this evening
bringing much of the precipitation to an end. Tricky part
tonight is how much moisture is trapped under an inversion and
if the skies clear enough to allow for fog development. Opted to
go with patchy to areas of valley fog especially in the river
valleys but confidence is low to moderate at this time.
Temperatures tonight will fall back into the low to mid 40s
north. Expecting low to mid 50s from the Central Highlands
southward to Bangor with light and variable winds. Winds begin
to shift NE by daybreak and slowly increase to around 5-10mph.
Skies will be turning mostly sunny tomorrow with drier air
working in off the Miramichi Highlands of New Brunswick thanks
to the downslope wind direction. Surface high pressure to our
north slowly works down into New Brunswick with 500mb ridging in
response developing overhead. High temperatures top out in the
upper 60s to low 70s across the area. Wednesday night a warm
front will lift northeast in southern New England heading for
Maine as warmer air begins advecting in aloft with increasing
moisture. Expect clouds to increase through the night with
temperatures dropping back into the low 40s north and mid to
upper 40s south. A challenge for Wed Night is if there is a
delay in increasing clouds may result in 30s over the north due
to decoupling in the evening. Low probabilities of this
occurring at this time but the trend in hi-res guidance will
need to be monitored.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure exits across the Maritimes Thursday while surface low
pressure and the supporting upper system cross the Great Lakes.
Clouds will increase early Thursday. Rain will then begin to expand
eastward across the forecast area during the afternoon. The
surface low should cross the region Thursday night through early
Friday, while the upper trof approaches from the west. Rain
will occur across the forecast area Thursday night into early
Friday, though rain totals are still uncertain. The upper trof
and a surface cold front will cross the region Friday through
early Friday night. Will have a chance of showers across the
region Friday. Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies north with
mostly cloudy/partly sunny skies Downeast. Could still have the
slight chance of a shower Friday evening. Otherwise, expect
generally partly cloudy skies. Expect near normal level
temperatures Thursday, with slightly above normal level
temperatures Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will cross the region Saturday, with a cold front and
upper level disturbance possibly starting to cross the region
Saturday night. Expect mostly/partly sunny skies Saturday. Expect
partly/mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of showers across
northern areas Saturday night, with partly cloudy skies along with a
slight chance of showers Downeast. The cold front and upper trof
will exit Sunday, with high pressure then building toward the
region late. Could still have the slight chance of a shower
across the region Sunday. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy skies
Sunday, with mostly clear skies Sunday night. High pressure
should then build across the region Monday into Tuesday with
mostly clear/partly cloudy skies. Near normal, to slightly above
normal, level temperatures are expected Saturday through
Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Any remaining MVFR across northern terms turning VFR
this evening. Expecting intially VFR conditions across the
terms tonight. Expecting VFR cigs overnight but BCFG/BR will
develop at sites which may result in IFR cigs/vsby. Confidence
is low at most sites due to high cigs which may prevent low
cigs/BR conditions. Light and variable winds this afternoon
becoming calm to light and variable tonight. Tomorrow, generally
VFR cigs but AM BR/BCFG may take till 14z to lift and mix out.
Light and variable winds tomorrow.
SHORT TERM:
Thursday...VFR/MVFR early, then MVFR/IFR with a chance of rain.
South/southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20
knots.
Thursday night...IFR/LIFR with rain. South/southeast winds 10 to 15
knots, becoming variable 5 to 10 knots.
Friday...MVFR/IFR early, then VFR/MVFR. A chance of rain early,
then a chance of showers. West/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots,
becoming west/northwest.
Friday night...Occasional MVFR with a slight chance of showers
early. Otherwise, VFR. West/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots.
Saturday...VFR. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming
south/southwest.
Saturday night...Occasional MVFR with a chance of showers late
across northern areas. Otherwise, VFR. A slight chance of
showers late Downeast. South/southwest winds around 10 knots.
Sunday...Occasional MVFR early. Otherwise, VFR. A slight chance
of showers. West/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts 20
to 25 knots, becoming northwest around 10 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Small Craft Advisory in effect for the Coastal
Waters from Schoodic Point to Stonington out 25 NM through 8PM
Wednesday. Long period SE swells from Hurricane Gabrielle that
is located 900 miles SE of Maine in the open Atlantic is
working into Maine waters this afternoon. Eastern waters to the
Bay of Fundy and Hague Line are being protected from Nova
Scotia so not expecting seas to reach SCA criteria. Intra-
Coastal waters are also protected with less than criteria seas.
Wave periods are expected to be 11-12 seconds across all waters.
The late tonight high tide along with tomorrow afternoon high
tide expecting a surge of 0.2-0.3ft on top of the astro tide.
Fog may reduce vsby at times tonight. Winds will shift E-NE
tomorrow but remain below 15kt. Seas will subside below SCA
levels tomorrow evening. Sea surface water temperatures are
generally in the 53-56F range across the coastal waters from the
Downeast Coast out 25nm and east to the Hague Line including
Penobscot and Passamaquoddy Bays.
SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Thursday
through Friday night. A chance of rain Thursday. Rain Thursday
night through early Friday. A chance of showers later Friday.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ051.
&&
$$
Near Term...Bloomer/Sinko
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...Bloomer/Sinko/Norcross
Marine...Bloomer/Sinko/Norcross

NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion