Seaboard, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

521
FXUS61 KAKQ 290131
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
931 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Imelda is expected to track north off the Southeast
coast Monday before becoming a hurricane as it turns out to sea on
Tuesday. Light rain well north of the systems overspreads the local
area Monday into Tuesday. However, only light rainfall total are now
expected. High pressure builds in from mid to late week with cooler
and drier weather returning.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 930 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Message:
- Increasing clouds tonight with a slight chance for a few rain
  showers.
Cloud cover increases from south to north overnight as moisture
continues to advect into the region aloft. Overnight lows in
the lower 60s NW to upper 60s SE are expected. Additionally, a
few light showers are possible across south central VA and NE NC
late tonight into early Monday morning with very little QPF
expected. However, a bit of dry air in the mid levels may keep
moisture from reaching the ground until later in the day on
Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Light rain is possible Monday into Tuesday.
- Breezy NE winds are expected Tuesday and Wednesday, especially along
  the coast where gusts up to around 30 mph are possible
  Tuesday and 35 to 40 mph Wednesday.
Aloft, a shortwave trough/weak upper level low forms across the
western Carolinas Mon into Tue. At the surface, Tropical Storm
Imelda is expected to move north off the Southeast coast before
turning east and heading out to sea as a hurricane on Tue.
Meanwhile, Hurricane Humberto is also expected to make a turn and
head out to sea on Tue. Tropical Storm Imelda has taken longer to
get organized than model guidance originally depicted over the past
few days. As such, it is slower, which now means that it will very
likely miss it`s opportunity to get closer to the Southeast coast
before turning out to sea. For the local area this means lower
rainfall totals Mon into Tue. In fact, rainfall totals have now
decreased to 

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion