Scranton, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

867
FXUS62 KILM 160529
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
129 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will linger near the Outer Banks through Wednesday
before high pressure brings drier and slightly warmer weather
for the second half of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Infrared satellite places the center of the gale-force low a little
less than 100 miles east of Cape Hatteras early this morning.
Compared to 24 hours ago this is actually quite a bit farther to the
northeast than models expected it to be. This position error,
possibly caused by persistent deep convection tugging the low
northward along the deep shear vector yesterday, may be one of the
reasons why rain and clouds did not build into Wilmington and Pender
County as was forecast.
The surface low is expected to move slowly northwestward today and
eventually stall near coastal northeastern North Carolina tonight,
captured by the 500 mb low currently moving over central North
Carolina. Atlantic moisture trapped within low level cyclonic flow
around the low will attempt to produce clouds and even a few light
showers across southeastern North Carolina today, however isentropic
descent/downglide should scatter the clouds out with mainly sunny
skies anticipated across Darlington, Florence, Conway, and
Georgetown today. Rain chances are only 20-30 percent across
southeastern NC with QPF no higher than a few hundredths of an inch
in spots.
There will likely be a large gradient in high temperatures today,
ranging from 70-75 across southeastern North Carolina to near 80
degrees over the Pee Dee region. Confidence is not especially high
with the precise location of the low cloud edge and thermal
gradient, and there will probably be a few locations where our
forecast busts by 5-7 degrees.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies should continue over southeastern
North Carolina tonight with mostly clear conditions forecast for
South Carolina. Continued northwest winds will wrap comfortably cool
air into the area with forecast lows ranging from the upper 50s to
around 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Upper low and its surface reflection will be in the process of being
kicking out to the north Wednesday as more energy dives into the
upstream side of the mid level trough.  The surface pressure pattern
will be pretty loosely defined but most of the boundary layer as
well as further up in height there will be a drying westerly flow.
Expect at least partial sunshine and temps warming to the mid if not
upper 70s. By Thursday the area will be looking at much less energy
aloft as the main trough axis is gone and only a few weak,
inconsequential vorticity centers pass overhead. At the surface a
weak semblance of southerly flow will become established to boost
temperatures by about a category to a few degrees above
climatology.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Temperatures to remain above normal on Friday as a small and weak
area of high pressure develops just off the coast. Mid level
troughing will impinge from the west but with weak amplitude
preventing any significant PVA or height falls for lift. This feature
washes out by Saturday and our relevant feature aloft will be a
big upper low in easternmost Canada, gently pushing higher and
higher surface pressures down the east coast of the U.S. The end
result of the new high will be a slight and gradual tempering of the
warmth, but only back to normal at most.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Atlantic moisture thrown back onshore across North Carolina could
lead to some impacts from low clouds later today mainly at the KILM
airport.
As early as 10z there is moderate potential for MVFR ceilings to
develop at KILM. This increases to a high potential between 11-16z,
but the thin nature of the clouds should allow enough sun through to
raise ceilings back toward 3000 feet AGL after 16z. Low clouds at
KILM may redevelop again tonight after 00z. The potential for
ceiling impacts is low at KLBT, mainly after 22z this afternoon. The
South Carolina airports KCRE, KMYR, and KFLO should remain VFR
through the period with only some northwest winds gusting near 20
knots to contend with today.
Extended Outlook...low clouds have a moderate potential to impact
airports across southeastern North Carolina after 06z tonight
through Wednesday morning. Otherwise VFR conditions should prevail
through the period.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Tonight...A gale-force low is centered less than 100 miles
east of Cape Hatteras this morning and should slowly move
northwestward toward the Outer Banks today, stalling over coastal
northeastern North Carolina tonight. Northwesterly winds are
expected across our portion of the Carolinas today with speeds
averaging 15-20 knots from Myrtle Beach northward and around 15
knots along the Georgetown County coastal waters.
With the shorter offshore fetch, wave heights should slowly diminish
throughout the day and the Small Craft Advisory should be good to
drop at 2 AM this morning. Combined seas of 3-4 feet today and 2-3
feet tonight are expected in a combination of northeasterly 9 second
swell and a short period wind chop from the northwest winds.
Wednesday through Saturday...
Low pressure over the NE part of the state losing
its influence locally at the start of the period. Not much of a
pressure pattern left behind so just a light W wind expected. Seas
settle into the 2-3 ft range with a small wind chop and light E
swell. Thu brings even lighter winds that will become variable for a
time and eventually southerly as a weak, small high forms off the
coast. Seas drop to being capped at 2 ft. The light gradient,
minimal winds and seas will continue into Friday.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...ILM

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion