Scotland, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

494
FXUS64 KOUN 031133
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
633 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1239 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
- Unseasonably warm temperatures and mainly dry conditions to
   persist into early next week.
-  Cold front is expected early-to-mid next week with rain/storm
   chances and cooler weather.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Quiet night expected overnight with mostly clear/partly cloudy
skies. Temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 60s by
Friday morning.
The quiet but warm weather will continue Friday. Models show upper
ridge continuing over the region as longwave trough meanders
eastward across portions of the western U.S. With the upper ridge
over the area and sunny skies, temperatures are expected to warm
into the mid/upper 80s and 90s this afternoon with warmest
temperatures in western north TX. These forecast afternoon highs are
around 10-15 degrees F above normal for this time of year.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
The upper pattern over the region will gradually shift to SW flow
aloft over the weekend. Models show a shortwave moving through this
flow Saturday night/Sunday moving across the central Rockies into
the Plains. At the surface, this will cause a cold front to
approach or maybe even move into NW part of the fa although most
of the models show the boundary getting close but not quite moving
into the fa. With the boundary near the area, there is a low
chance for showers/storms in NW/N parts of the fa Sunday into
Monday.
Temperatures are expected to remain warm and above average over the
weekend although maybe a few degrees cooler than Friday. Highs are
expected to be in the 80s to low 90s. The pressure gradient is also
expected to strengthen some over the weekend leading to breezy S to
SE winds across much of the fa.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Models show the frontal boundary making it further south across
portions of OK Tuesday/Wednesday. Showers/storms will be possible
across portions of the fa with this boundary. The early part of next
week is expected to remain warm with highs in the 80s to around 90.
With the front moving into the area and some rain, cooler
temperatures then expected towards the middle of next week,
especially in northern OK, with highs in the 70s to low 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
No significant aviation weather concerns are expected. Light winds
will increase from the south/southeast later this morning becoming
somewhat gusty across the west.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  89  64  86  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         91  64  89  64 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  90  64  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           89  63  87  64 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     90  64  88  64 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         89  61  86  63 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...26

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion