Sapulpa, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

831
FXUS64 KTSA 111129
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
629 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
- Dry weather with above normal temperatures into early next week.
- Heat index values of mid 90s to near 100 degrees Friday into
   the weekend, which could increase heat stress potential for
   those with outdoor plans.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Ridge of high pressure continues to expand across the Plains
Wednesday night into Thursday. A weakening area of vorticity along
the eastern periphery of an area of warm advection could create
isolated areas of high based light rain/sprinkles across northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as it rounds the mid level high
pressure center early Thursday morning. Latest observed soundings
indicate a layer of drier low level air across the region which will
limit the amount rain lingering into early Thursday morning from
reaching the surface. For now though will hold onto isolated
sprinkles.
During the day Thursday, as the the mid level ridge center sets up
over eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, cloud cover from
Wednesday night should begin to scatter out. These conditions
combined with southerly low level flow will aid warmer afternoon
temperatures over the CWA with high temps in the lower 90s for most
locations.  Low temps Wednesday night and Thursday night should
remain in the 60s for much of the CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
The ridge of high pressure is expected to be the dominate feature
from the Southern Plains into the Great Lakes region Friday into the
weekend as an expansive area of low pressure remains over the
Western CONUS. At the lower levels, flow is forecast to become more
southwest across the CWA Friday and Saturday underneath the mid
level ridge center. In response, a continued warming trend is
anticipated with highs each afternoon in the mid to upper 90s. At
the same time, dewpoints climbing back into the mid 60 to near 70
deg range will create heat index values of mid 90s to near 100 deg.
This could increase heat stress potentials Friday into the weekend
for those with outdoor plans.
The ridge axis is progged to shift east of the CWA for Sunday as
the area of low pressure out west begins to move out into the
Plains. Latest model solutions indicate precip developing early
Sunday morning within an increasing low level jet as the wave gets
lee of the Rocky Mountains. However, uncertainty remains with
just how far east any precip can move. Thus, for now will keep
mentionable PoPs west of the CWA and add an increase in cloud
cover over the western portion of the CWA Sunday
afternoon/evening.
With the low pressure moving into the Northern Plains Monday, the
ridge looks to become more elongated from the Southern Plains up
against a trof over the East Coast. Again, extended model solutions
differ on the strength of the remaining ridge and its location which
could impact the potential for a shortwave to drop southeast into
the Plains during the middle part of next week. For now will keep
PoP just below mentionable criteria past Monday with no significant
rainfall forecast into next week. Either way, with the potential
weakening ridge, temperatures for the first half of next week look
to be slightly cooler compared to expected temps this weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Some fog will remain possible at KBVO for the first hour or so of
the forecast period, otherwise VFR conditions will prevail.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   92  69  95  70 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   94  70  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   93  67  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   91  63  94  66 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   91  64  93  66 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   91  67  94  67 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   91  68  93  69 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   90  66  92  67 /  10   0   0   0
F10   92  67  93  68 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   92  67  93  69 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...05

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion