Saint James, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

801
FXUS63 KAPX 282331
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
731 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Anomalously warm during the day through Monday.
- Dry airmass and clear skies permits an outside shot at patchy
  frost across the interior terrain of northern lower tonight.
- Dry and mild weather through most of next week, with a degree
  of concern toward fire weather.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Pattern Synopsis: Broad upper-level ridging is in place across
the lower 48 states, with an associated area of surface high
pressure over the Great Lakes region. Upper-level heights will
build locally during the period, as the surface high slowly
drifts east.
Forecast Details: A surface high nearly overhead and a very dry
air mass supports good radiational cooling tonight. Most of the
forecast guidance keeps overnight lows in the 40s, but a few
suggest our typically colder inland areas of northern Lower
Michigan may fall into the 30s. This seems reasonable given the
readings seen this morning across northern Wisconsin under a
similar weather pattern. Air mass is dry enough to preclude much
in the way of frost development in areas that do fall into the
30s and do not expect temperatures to fall to freezing in more
than a very isolated way. With this thinking in mind, do not
plan any frost/freeze headlines tonight. Temperatures will
rebound nicely Monday given the dry air mass and rising heights.
Widespread 70s for highs are anticipated again, with a few
lower 80s possible. RH values over interior northern Lower
Michigan are likely to fall into the 20s Monday afternoon which
may increase fire danger given the drying vegetation and
expanding drought conditions. Thankfully relatively light winds
are anticipated as well.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Pattern Synopsis: A blocky pattern remains over the region for
most of the week, with broad upper-level ridging remaining in
place across most of the lower 48 states. Forecast area will be
under the influence of this upper ridging and associated
surface high pressure during most of the period. However, a
back door cold front is forecast to slip south across the area
Monday night into Tuesday bringing cooler, but still mostly
above normal temperatures to the area for midweek. The ridge
axis shifts to the eastern portion of the country by late in the
week with stronger energy pushing in from the Pacific coast.
Forecast Details: Quiet weather persists through most if not all
of the period due to persistent upper-level ridging, surface
high pressure, and an associated dry air mass. The dry air mass
will allow for large diurnal temperature swings, with daily lows
near normal in the 40s, and daily highs well above normal
mainly in the 70s. Wednesday looks to have the coolest high
temperature readings with some 60s likely behind a dry back
door cold front. Lows bump up into the 50s, with highs around
80 by late in the week as the upper-level ridge axis pushes
overhead. The NBM blend tries to slip some low PoPs for rainfall
in by the weekend as the blocky pattern starts to break down,
but feeling is still that dry weather is anticipated into early
next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 731 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Airmass in northern MI is drier than it has been over the past
several days. Some fog still possible in fog-prone locales,
PLN/MBL in particular. Otherwise VFR thru the forecast. Light
winds tonight, with onshore lake breezes by Monday afternoon.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PBB
LONG TERM...PBB
AVIATION...JZ

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion