Rye, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

684
FXUS65 KFGZ 092139
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
240 PM MST Tue Sep 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Expect breezy and cooler weather from Wednesday through
Friday, with chances for showers and thunderstorms. Dry conditions
develop again for next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A slow moving trough will meander through the western
states for the next week or so, significantly changing our weather.
Ahead of the trough, drier and capped mid-level air has limited us
to fair weather cumulus today, with increased breezes. We will then
transition to lower hghts and cyclonic flow for the remainder of the
week. This also means further increased southwest winds, especially
Wednesday and Thursday, as the trough moves into the Great Basin.
The trough may tap into some of the remnant monsoonal moisture pool
as early as tomorrow, which could lead to some strong thunderstorms.
Currently, the best chance for this moisture tap looks like eastern
Arizona, Thursday and Friday. The bigger story is the winds, which
will top 40 to 45 mph by Thursday, this will be the most wind seen
in some time and a Wind Advisory has been issued. Fire danger isn`t
horrible right now, but this pattern will need to be watched.
By next weekend, the trough ejects and winds will come down. The air
mass trailing the trough will be quite dry, so expect a sunny and
seasonably cool weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...Tuesday 09/18Z through Wednesday 10/18Z...VFR
conditions. Winds S/SW 10-15 kts with gusts 20-30 kts, subsiding to
5-10 kts after 02Z. Winds remaining elevated downwind of the terrain
overnight.
OUTLOOK...Wednesday 10/18Z through Friday 12/18Z...Mainly VFR
conditions. ISO -SHRA/-TSRA possible in vicinity of KJTC and 0V7/E91
on Wednesday and then over much of the higher terrain on Thursday.
Daytime winds S/SW 15-25 kts with gusts up to 35 kts on Wednesday,
then 10-20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts on Thursday. Winds remaining
elevated downwind of the terrain overnight.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Turning cooler. Chance for showers and thunderstorms
each day, especially across eastern Arizona. South/southwest winds
15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph each day. Minimum RH 15-30% each
afternoon.
Friday through Sunday...Remaining cool. Chance for showers and
thunderstorms mainly across eastern Arizona on Friday, otherwise dry
conditions. Winds southwest 5-15 mph each afternoon. Minimum RH 15-
30% on Friday, dropping to 10-20% over the weekend.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ to 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/
Wednesday for AZZ004-006>009-012-013-015-016-039-040.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

NWS FGZ Office Area Forecast Discussion