316 FXUS63 KLMK 090632 AFDLMKArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 232 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Dry and pleasant weather expected this week with a gradual warming trend in temperatures.
* Next chance of rain likely not arriving until next Sunday or Monday.
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.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/... Issued at 306 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Quiet weather ongoing through the short term as surface high pressure remains in control of our region. Looking for a mostly clear and quiet night with perhaps some valley fog in the eastern portions of the CWA. Outside of that, look for another dry day on Tuesday with temperatures still below normal. Max Ts will be a few degrees warmer than today with values mostly in the lower 80s for for highs. Surface winds switch around to a light SE component, so won`t have that NE surface wind hurting heating potential as much.
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.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 306 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Tuesday Night - Monday...
Dry conditions continue through mid week, although with a shortwave trough axis pushing through the area, can`t completely rule out a few light sprinkles or very light showers on Thursday. Pops will stay "silent" (less than 15%). Temperatures will rebound with highs in the mid to upper 80s by Wednesday, then upper 80s to around 90 Thursday and Friday. Upper ridge will start to build in by then, with pattern recognition suggesting this will allow for temps above normal.
Dry conditions are then expected to continue through the weekend as upper ridging tries to hold against a closed low sagging into the Great Lakes region. Temps remain above normal for this time period with high continuing in the upper 80s to around 90. By later Sunday into Monday, a weak cool front extending from the eastern Great Lakes closed low will sag into our area. This feature should be fairly moisture starved, but a few light showers may be possible. Will keep the dry forecast going, but advertising higher pops around 10% for the moment seems reasonable. Slightly cooler temps back in the mid to upper 80s by Monday look like a good bet.
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.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 231 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Little to no change to the overall forecast as we remain VFR through the period. Mainly calm winds overnight will shift more out of the south to southeast to around 5 knots. No impacts expected in the forecast.
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.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None.
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SHORT TERM...BJS LONG TERM...BJS AVIATION...BTN
NWS LMK Office Area Forecast Discussion