Roff, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

082
FXUS64 KOUN 271742
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1242 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1242 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
- Above-average temperatures and dry conditions will continue
   through next week.
- Low chance for a pattern chance by next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Quiet and warm weather persist with above-average temperatures
today. The weak cold front over southwestern Kansas and into the
central Oklahoma panhandle remains just northwest of the forecast
area. MSLP is expected to fall across southeast Colorado this
evening as a weak mid- level shortwave moves northeast from the
Sandias toward southeast Colorado, and with that the cold front is
expected to slowly lift back north and back away from the
forecast area. Some high clouds will spread into the western
portion of the area east of the broader western United States
trough.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
The upper ridge shifts slightly east Sunday extending from south
Texas up toward the Great Lakes, but the close proximity keeps the
weather warm and dry Sunday.
The broad trough across the western United States will weaken into
a much smaller magnitude wave that will move toward the southern
High Plains and toward or over the southwestern portion of the
forecast area on Monday/Monday night. But the airmass remains
relatively dry in the lower and mid levels of the atmosphere, so
there are no significant precipitation chances despite the
approach of this wave, although there may be some virga appear on
radar as lift associated with this wave interacts with increasing
upper-tropospheric moisture. The increasing upper-level clouds and
the decrease in heights/thicknesses with the approach of this
wave will keep high temperatures a little lower on Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 105 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
The pattern will remain fairly the same Tuesday through the end of
next week with the upper ridge becoming sandwiched between the next
incoming trough axis and a tropical system that is currently a
tropical disturbance near eastern Cuba. Thus, the western extent of
the surface high will continue to bring southeast surface flow into
much of Oklahoma, helping to keep temperatures near or slight above-
normal. Daily lee troughing to the west may bring some low-end
breezy winds to northwest and western Oklahoma through the week.
Ensemble guidance continues to show a more zonal flow by the
weekend, but the outlier GFS ensembles still want to bring a trough
into the Plains, which could bring a potential for a cooler airmass
and increased precipitation chances. If the ensemble guidance is
proven to be true, next weekend`s forecast will feature near-normal
temperatures and dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1050 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
VFR conditions will continue through the upcoming period with
passing high clouds and a modest southerly breeze expected into
Sunday morning.
Safe travels!
Ungar
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  63  87  62  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         60  88  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  62  87  61  85 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           59  86  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     62  89  61  85 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         61  87  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...09

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion