Rocky Bar, Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

761
FXUS65 KBOI 061508
AFDBOI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
908 AM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025
.DISCUSSION...Frost Advisory for the western Magic Valley will
expire at 10 AM MDT. Next two nights will be similarly cold and
we may need a Frost Advisory for the Lower Treasure Valley
Tuesday morning. Days will be sunny and warming through Thursday
then level off Friday.  Treasure Valley may reach 80 degrees on
those days.  Then a strong cold front late Friday followed by
showers and a steep drop in temps over the weekend.  See Prev
Long Term below for details.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR with a few cumulus build ups over high terrain
this afternoon. Surface winds: variable less than 10 kt. Winds
aloft at 10 kft MSL: N-NE 5-10 kt.
KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: variable less than 5 kt becoming
NW 5-10 kt by Mon/21z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night...
Morning observations show temperatures cooling into the 30s and
40s across most areas. Patchy frost in the western Magic Valley
where temperatures will locally approach freezing. Drier low-
level air will continue to move into the region today, and with
upper ridging building overhead, a very quiet weather day is in
store with little to no clouds and high temperatures a few
degrees below normal. A warming trend will commence Tuesday into
Wednesday with temperatures climbing around 5 degrees each day,
with highs eventually reaching the mid-upper 70s in the lower
elevations. Afternoon breeziness increases Wednesday afternoon
in Harney County into far southwest Idaho, with peak gusts of
25-35 mph expected.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...
A much more active and unsettled pattern begins to take shape
into the weekend as a large offshore upper low transitions into
an upper wave and shifts inland. Ensemble mean and deterministic
model solutions are converging on a similar evolution, with the
trough moving across Oregon on Saturday. A broad plume of
moisture will extend from the Southwest US, partially related to
what is now Hurricane Priscilla, with the interior Northwest
along the western periphery of the plume. This will result in a
increase in precipitation chances area-wide as early as Friday
afternoon, but more probable into Saturday and Sunday.
Instability appears limited at this time, which will limit
convective enhancement of precipitation rates. Probabilities
for more than 0.5" of QPF range from 50-70% over the Idaho
mountains, to 10-30% elsewhere. Snow levels will initially
start out quite high, but by Sunday decrease to 5000-6000 feet
- enough for light mountain accumulations. Temperatures will
also be significantly cooler, with current forecasts suggesting
high temperatures in the 50s for many areas on Sunday and
Monday.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Frost Advisory until 10 AM MDT this morning IDZ016.
OR...None.
&&
$$
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DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....SA
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM....JR

NWS BOI Office Area Forecast Discussion