Rock Canyon, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

944
FXUS64 KEPZ 241735
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1135 AM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1130 AM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025
- Thunderstorms will be more isolated today, mainly focused over
   the Gila Region with a few storms making their way into the
   lowlands.
- More widespread precipitation enters the forecast Thursday
   through early next week, enhancing the risk for flash flooding.
- The pattern supports a risk for some strong to severe
   thunderstorms late in the week as well.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025
September is shaping up to finish rather active mostly thanks to
a slow-moving upper-level low presently off the CA coast. For
today though, shower and thunderstorm activity should be more
limited. A cold front pushed through this morning helping provide
some moisture content. It and trailing energy from a trough axis
have kicked off a few showers near the International Border toward
the Texas - New Mexico border. Showers are slowly winding down,
but a shallow cu field extends into Arizona along that line. As we
go into the afternoon, storms are expected to develop across the
Gila before sliding southeast though how far remains in question.
Either way, rising heights will greatly limit forcing, keeping
today relatively quiet, at least compared to what is ahead.
As we go into Thursday, upper level ridge will build across New
Mexico, but the ridge axis will also be shifting east. UL low
mentioned above will be over SoCal by evening with a warm conveyor
belt forming ahead of the exit region of the jet. Shower and
thunderstorm coverage will increase sharply along the NM-AZ line,
seeded by subtropical moisture, before gradually shifting east
during the afternoon and evening hours. With PWAT values over an
inch, above the 90th percentile, flash flooding will be concern
for areas that see repeated rainfall. Shear values around 30 knots
will be sufficient to organize storms provided we can get enough
instability, so there will also be a conditional risk for strong
to severe storms.
The UL low will sag south toward the International Border
overnight Thursday into Friday, which will realign the jet to its
south, placing the exit region more toward Sonora and eastern AZ.
Combined with the loss of daytime heating, shower and thunderstorm
activity will gradually wane overnight. Nevertheless, by the
afternoon, the CWA will once again come back under the influence
of the jet`s exit region with height falls beneath diffluent flow.
This pattern will lead to more shower and thunderstorm activity.
Areas west of the Rio Grande will have the best dynamics and
therefore the highest coverage/ storm chances. Flash flooding will
once again be the main concern. Shear appears a little weaker,
15-25 knots, as compared to Thursday, so the severe weather risk
should be rather low but not zero.
The upper-level low will push toward the Colorado River Valley by
Saturday evening. It will be a rinse and repeat to what I wrote
the paragraph above, but with everything shifted a bit farther
east. The GFS, NAM, and Euro disagree on shear values with the NAM
the weakest, but the GFS and Euro show 35 to 40 knots of shear,
which would increase the severe weather risk, especially if we can
see CAPE values approach 1000 J/kg.
The UL low will quickly open up into a trough on Sunday, which
will allow it to accelerate (barely) eastward. Drier air will
push in from the west, stalling somewhere toward the Rio Grande
Valley, keeping the highest chances for rain and storms along and
east of the Rio. A warm conveyor belt sets-up ahead of this trough
axis, so rain and storm chances will last well into the night and
morning hours on Monday. It`s not until the main trough axis
finally sweeps through Monday evening that rain and storm chances
end, and that takes us to the end of the forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025
VFR conditions are expected throughout the period with variable
skies (generally FEW-SCT) with bases as low as 080. Winds will
peak 10 to 15 knots along with gusts to 25 knots this afternoon
with the strongest at DMN, generally out of the east or northeast.
ISO SHRA/TSRA is expected this afternoon into the evening, but
chances for direct impacts at any given site is generally AOB
20%. Ongoing VCSH around ELP is expected to exit the area before
19z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Minimal to no fire weather concerns are expected for the forecast
period. Robust moisture ahead of an upper-level will keep minimum
RH values well above 15% with daily shower and thunderstorm
chances. Today will feature the lowest coverage, but scattered to
widespread coverage is expected each day after that. Winds will
top out around 10 MPH except near thunderstorms. Temperatures
will be normal to below normal with venting generally poor to
fair.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  86  66  88  67 /  20  20  30  30
Sierra Blanca            76  56  82  59 /  20  20  20  20
Las Cruces               83  60  84  62 /  20  20  30  40
Alamogordo               83  58  84  61 /  10   0  10  10
Cloudcroft               61  41  63  45 /  10   0  10  10
Truth or Consequences    81  59  83  60 /  10  20  30  30
Silver City              80  55  80  55 /  20  20  60  60
Deming                   87  62  88  62 /  10  20  40  50
Lordsburg                86  64  86  61 /  20  20  50  70
West El Paso Metro       83  66  86  67 /  20  20  30  30
Dell City                78  56  84  60 /  20  10  20  10
Fort Hancock             84  63  88  66 /  20  20  20  20
Loma Linda               74  57  80  60 /  20  20  20  30
Fabens                   84  63  88  65 /  10  20  20  30
Santa Teresa             82  63  85  64 /  20  20  30  40
White Sands HQ           82  62  86  64 /  20  20  30  30
Jornada Range            83  59  84  61 /  20  20  20  30
Hatch                    86  60  87  62 /  10  20  30  40
Columbus                 87  63  88  64 /  10  20  40  50
Orogrande                80  57  83  61 /  20  20  20  20
Mayhill                  66  45  74  50 /  10   0  10  10
Mescalero                72  46  75  49 /  10   0  10  10
Timberon                 69  45  72  48 /  20   0  10  10
Winston                  74  48  77  50 /  20  20  50  40
Hillsboro                82  55  83  56 /  20  20  40  50
Spaceport                82  57  83  59 /  10  20  20  30
Lake Roberts             82  50  81  51 /  30  30  60  60
Hurley                   82  56  81  56 /  20  20  50  60
Cliff                    88  59  87  58 /  20  20  60  60
Mule Creek               85  55  84  55 /  20  20  60  60
Faywood                  80  57  80  58 /  20  20  50  60
Animas                   87  62  88  61 /  10  10  50  70
Hachita                  84  61  86  60 /  10  10  60  70
Antelope Wells           86  61  87  60 /  10  10  60  70
Cloverdale               83  60  83  58 /  10  10  60  70
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...34-Brown

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion