Rixey, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

608
FXUS64 KLZK 221144
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
644 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 145 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
-Strong to severe storms with multiple rounds posing a flash flood
 threat will be possible across central to northern Arkansas
 overnight through Monday morning.
-Areas of rainy conditions continuing through mid-week, with more
 widespread rains Tuesday into Wednesday.
-Cooling temperatures to at or below normal levels going into late
 this week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Training showers and storms across portions of western Arkansas
(currently the Crawford, Sebastian, Franklin, Logan and Johnson
County area) will pose a flash flood threat as cells continue to
form along a boundary that is in a favorable area for development
due to a strengthening LLJ across eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas. Stronger storms will additionally pose a strong to
severe wind and small hail threat. CAM`s continue to struggle with
storm evolution/maintenance going into the morning hours, but
general thinking is showers and storms will continue to push
eastward across Arkansas through daybreak. At that point, more
uncertainty in storm evolution exists heading into the afternoon
hours, where CAM`s generally show a downward trend in activity,
but cannot rule out activity extending into portions of central to
southern Arkansas later today. Temperatures are expected to
generally cool back towards normal levels (low to mid-80s for
central Arkansas) through early week.
Heading into the middle of the week, a mid-level disturbance
moving across the Central Plains will aid in strengthening low
pressure across that general region, with a cold front moving
across Arkansas Tuesday into Wednesday. This will bring the next
round of widespread rains to the region and, depending on timing,
could result in the opportunity for strong to severe storms along
and ahead of the front. Post front, much cooler temperatures are
expected to settle into the region, where highs in the 70s and 80s
will continue through the end of the week.
Quieter weather is anticipated going through this weekend and into
next week as high pressure builds across the region, resulting in
slight warming temperatures back towards normal levels.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Periods of shower and storm activity throughout the forecast
period will be the main aviation challenge. Most activity is
currently remaining outside of the terminal reach, but general
southerly movement of showers and storms should result in VCSH
becoming -RA/-TSRA for periods this morning and into the
afternoon. Convection is generally expected to dissipate going
into the evening hours, resulting in improving
ceilings/visibilities during this period. Some lingering showery
activity across northern Arkansas may keep some lowered ceilings
for the northern terminals, with an MCS possibly impinging on
northwestern Arkansas towards the end of the period. Areas that
remain mostly clear and receive some precipitation may see some
IFR/LIFR ceilings in visibilities during the overnight hours
tonight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     84  66  82  67 /  80  60  80  90
Camden AR         88  69  91  70 /  40  20  40  60
Harrison AR       82  65  76  65 /  70  60  90  90
Hot Springs AR    85  68  88  68 /  70  30  60  80
Little Rock   AR  85  71  87  71 /  70  40  60  80
Monticello AR     91  71  93  72 /  30  20  30  50
Mount Ida AR      83  68  87  68 /  70  30  60  80
Mountain Home AR  83  66  78  65 /  70  50  90  90
Newport AR        84  69  83  69 /  80  60  80  90
Pine Bluff AR     88  70  91  70 /  50  30  40  60
Russellville AR   84  69  84  69 /  80  40  80  90
Searcy AR         85  68  86  69 /  80  50  80  80
Stuttgart AR      85  70  87  70 /  60  40  50  70
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...77

NWS LZK Office Area Forecast Discussion