Rigby, Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

425
FXUS65 KPIH 121933
AFDPIH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
133 PM MDT Fri Sep 12 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cooler temperatures continue into early next week.
- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms also continue,
mainly over higher terrain.
- Drier and slightly warmer pattern for mid to late next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 133 PM MDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Upper trough continues to migrate across East Idaho today per
satellite imagery. Early afternoon starting to see a few pockets of
weak convective development, but so far the strongest convection
remains in northeast Nevada. Forecast retains isolated to scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms across higher terrain this
afternoon and evening. Could see a few showers sneak into the
interstate corridors of the Snake Plain, but overall much of the
Snake Plain expected to remain dry. Most of the activity dissipates
with sunset, but there is potential for a few showers to continue
past midnight tonight and/or redevelop before dawn mainly over the
eastern or southeast highlands. Lows tonight are expected to be near
or slightly warmer than last night, given the cloud cover
anticipated overnight. A repeat is forecast for Saturday, with
similar temperature profiles, and another round of mainly isolated
showers and thunderstorms over higher terrain.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 133 PM MDT Fri Sep 12 2025
On Sunday, a transient ridge of high pressure is moving across Idaho
with mostly dry conditions through at least the first half of the
day. This ridge will allow temperatures to warm into the mid and
upper 70s in the afternoon. In the second half of Sunday, this ridge
will be exiting Eastern Idaho as an area of deep troughing begins to
develop a low over central Idaho. This next system will bring rain
chances back to the Central Mountains as early as Sunday
afternoon/evening and then showers will spread eastward overnight
into Monday. Highs on Monday will be running about 5 to 10 degrees
below normal with many in the mid to upper 60s. Looking at the 48
hours from Sunday morning to Tuesday morning, the NBM shows about a
10 to 25 percent chance for at least a tenth of an inch of rain in
the eastern Magic Valley and Snake River Plain. Those numbers
increase to about a 30 to 50 percent chance in the Central Mountains
and Eastern Highlands and even a bit higher to around a 60 percent
chance up in the Island Park area. Winds gusts will increase a bit
on Sunday and Monday, too, to around 20 to 25 mph each afternoon. We
will dry out from west to east on Tuesday as this system departs and
high pressure begins to build back in over the area. Highs on
Tuesday will be just a couple of degrees warmer than Monday, but the
warmer weather makes a return with high pressure on Wednesday,
warming into the mid and upper 70s. Expect highs to be very similar
on Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1131 AM MDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Showers and storms this afternoon and evening will be a bit more
isolated than yesterday. Given the latest HI-RES models, will go
ahead and add a PROB30 for DIJ where the latest HREF 24-hour thunder
probability has increased to about a 40 to 50 percent chance. For
SUN and IDA, have VCSH in the TAFs due to low probability of
occurrence and high uncertainty. A few of the models show spotty
showers continuing into early Saturday morning. Outside of any
storms, expect VFR conditions to continue.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 133 PM MDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Upper low moving over East Idaho today, with trough axis shifting
east into Wyoming for Saturday. Rounds of isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue each afternoon and
evening. A few showers will be possible overnight tonight across the
Caribou-Targhee NF, though confidence is low. Unsettled conditions
continue into early next week as a new system works across the
region. Temperatures remain cool through early next week, with
Monday and Tuesday the coolest days of the week for most. A ridge of
high pressure looks to build back into the region for mid to late
next week, with a slight bump in temperatures back toward seasonal
normals.
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...AMM
AVIATION...AMM
FIRE WEATHER...DMH

NWS PIH Office Area Forecast Discussion