Richfield, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

858
FXUS63 KMKX 232011
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
311 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of fog will be possible tonight, mainly for the Madison
  area and points westward.
- A small chance for showers tomorrow and Thursday along the
  lakeshore, with conditions drying out by the end of the week.
- Highs rise to around 80 this upcoming weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued 244 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Tonight through Thursday night:
Wisconsin will be in a regime of post-frontal cyclonic flow with
moisture streaming in off of Lake Michigan. While clouds have
broken up this afternoon, save for southeast WI where a low
stratus deck lingers, clouds will increase tonight. Areas of fog
are expected around Madison and points westward.
Given the cyclonic flow, clouds are expected to linger into
tomorrow, with some chances for scattered sprinkles and light
rain through the day. A bit more substantial chance for lake
effect rain then looks possible over southeast Wisconsin on
Thursday as lake-induced CAPE increases due to a pocket of
colder air aloft.
Persistent northeast flow will lead to high waves along the Lake
Michigan shoreline. Moderate Swim Risk conditions are expected
tonight into tomorrow morning, with a High Swim Risk expected
Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Swimming is not
advised during this time and it is recommended to stay away from
piers and breakwalls, where rolling currents are more likely.
CMiller
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued 308 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Friday through Tuesday:
Dry weather is expected Friday through the weekend as surface
high pressure builds into the region amid ridging aloft. Fair
weather and light to moderate winds are expected, amid highs
near 80 through Monday.
CMiller
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued 249 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Clouds have scattered over much of southern WI, but a deck of
IFR to MVFR stratus still remains over the southeastern corner
of Wisconsin. This cloud deck should slowly break this evening,
before northeasterly flow off of the lake increases cloud cover
tonight over much of southern WI. IFR to MVFR ceilings will then
become prevalent by daybreak on Wednesday with areas of fog
around and west of KMSN. Clouds should then scatter going into
tomorrow afternoon. Winds will be northeasterly and moderate,
with stronger winds expected for lakeshore terminals.
CMiller
&&
.MARINE...
Issued 249 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
North to northeast winds will increase this evening behind a
trough that is currently over southern Lake Michigan. Breezy
northerly to northeasterly winds will then continue through
Thursday as low pressure slowly moves northeast over the Ohio
River Valley. Winds then ease Thursday night as high pressure
moves over the region. While the northeasterly winds continue
periods of lake effect showers may occur. Conditions do not look
supportive of waterspouts at this time.
CMiller
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072...4 PM
     Wednesday to 7 AM Thursday.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646...4 PM Wednesday to 7 AM
     Thursday.
&&
$$
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NWS MKX Office Area Forecast Discussion