Reynolds Plantation, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

809
FXUS62 KFFC 250035
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
835 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...Evening Update...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 822 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
- A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms each day
   through the weekend. Strong gusty winds are possible tomorrow
   afternoon with the thunderstorms, and SPC has a Marginal Risk
   (1/5) in place over GA for tomorrow.
- Cooler temperatures, near seasonal normals, expected behind the
   cold front, starting tomorrow.
- High uncertainty in forecast beyond this weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 822 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing across north
Georgia, still to the northwest of the metro. This is the first
wave of activity that is slated to move through the area, the
second of which will occur Thursday mid-day through the afternoon.
Some stronger winds 40-60 MPH have been noted with some of the
storms currently moving north of the metro aided by some upper
divergence aloft. Further south, a gust front has started to move
out ahead with the overall intensity of storms waning as they
track east. Regardless, periods of light to moderate rainfall and
some rumbles of thunder will remain possible overnight. Coverage
of showers and storms diminishes early Thursday morning with
patchy fog/mist possible especially where rainfall/storms
occurred.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
A frontal boundary is approaching Georgia, and will bring with it
instability and moisture. Periods of widespread rain are expected
tonight through the end of the short term period. Rainfall totals
are going to be around 1-1.5 inches overall. However, isolated
higher amounts are likely, particularly over north Georgia, with up
to around 3-4 inches being possible.
This afternoon, shower activity will continue, remaining generally
isolated. While a thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out, the risk
is low through tonight.
Overnight tonight, additional moisture moves in. Showers and periods
of rain are likely over northern and western Georgia. Another surge
in moisture, combined with the proximity of the frontal boundary and
daytime heating, will result in another pulse in shower activity
during the afternoon tomorrow. CAPE values are likely to be on the
order of 1000-1500 J/kg. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are
likely after midday tomorrow into the evening. Some of these
thunderstorms are likely to produce strong, gusty winds, and SPC has
a Marginal Risk (1/5) for tomorrow.
Temperatures will cool off with the arrival of the cold front, which
will bring the high temperature tomorrow back down to near-normal
levels, in the low 70s to low 90s across northern and central
Georgia.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
The longterm outlook will be heavily dependent on conditions in the
Atlantic over the coming days. A relatively low latitude upper level
blocking pattern over the western Atlantic is causing chaos in up
stream flow development. So, lets start by addressing the elephant
in the room. The NHC has two 80% regions of potential tropical
development in the western Atlantic over the next 7 days. Models,
including the ECMWF and its ensemble, GEFS, and HAFS have continued
to try developing at least 1 tropical system in the area. At the
same time, the upper level trough which is bringing our short term
PoPs, begins to stall as it runs into the upper level block. Now,
the good news is that no models at this time have direct impacts
from any tropical system. However, the interplay between 2
(potentially 3) systems is exceptionally chaotic and adds extreme
uncertainty to the forecast beyond the weekend. Ensemble spread
values for wind and height at 250mb and 500mb respectively show
anomalously large values within 120hrs. This discussion is not so
much to raise awareness of the tropical systems themselves, as
impacts to the CWA are unlikely, but more to emphasis that any
forecast beyond Sunday will likely see significant
changes/uncertainty over the coming days. Generally, with the
stalling trough pattern and PWATs likely over 1" we can expect to
see some showers and thunderstorms in the cwa most days from Sunday
onward. Otherwise temperatures should be cooler than they have been
with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 752 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
VFR conditions will gradually give way to MVFR and patchy IFR
conditions through the period. Two waves of shra and scattered
tsra will be moving through, the first between 02-09z and the
second between 17-00z Thursday. VCSH and -RA will be possible in
between these times but the main times are noted by a PROB30.
Winds will be predominately SW 4-9kts. Erratic winds and lower
vsbys will remain possible within any tsra.
//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence on timing of shra/tsra
High confidence on remaining elements
07
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  82  67  79 /  20  70  40  40
Atlanta         72  81  68  80 /  30  80  40  40
Blairsville     65  75  62  76 /  70  80  40  50
Cartersville    69  81  66  81 /  60  80  30  40
Columbus        72  84  69  82 /  20  80  50  50
Gainesville     70  80  67  79 /  40  70  40  40
Macon           71  88  69  81 /   0  60  50  60
Rome            71  83  67  83 /  70  70  30  40
Peachtree City  69  81  67  80 /  30  80  40  40
Vidalia         71  94  70  86 /   0  30  40  70
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CRS
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...07

NWS FFC Office Area Forecast Discussion