Refuge, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

577
FXUS64 KHGX 051832
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
132 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
- Isolated showers and storms will be possible along the coast and
  in the Gulf waters through the next several days.
- Small craft will need to exercise caution through this evening
  in the Gulf waters for easterly winds of 15-20kt and seas
  between 3-5ft.
- Beachgoers should also be aware that there is an increased risk
  for rip currents today. Increasing swells and winds may lead to
  minor coastal flooding at times of high tide this afternoon.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
We will be in a rather benign weather pattern for much of this
week. A building upper level ridge will bring us a mostly rain-
free week, but daytime heating and increased moisture will lead to
some isolated afternoon showers (and maybe a thunderstorm or two)
along the coast. Guidance has been showing that a weak, dry
boundary may try to approach/move through the area mid to late
week. Details are fuzzy on this boundary as guidance struggles to
pinpoint on a timeframe (some runs have it coming through as early
as Thursday, and other runs not until the weekend), but the most
likely impacts we`d feel from this week FROPA is a brief period of
dry northerly winds. Afternoon high temperatures through this
week will generally be in the upper 80s to mid-90s with Tuesday
and Wednesday likely the warmest days of the week. Overnight lows
will be in the low to mid 70s through Wednesday, but could see
some slightly cooler overnight lows once that weak boundary ushers
in some drier air.
The high risk of strong rip currents continues today, and it may
continue into tomorrow depending on how quickly the onshore winds
weaken. High tide at Galveston Bay Entrance got to around 4.2ft
above Mean Low Low Water early this morning. While the afternoon
high tide cycle is expected to be lower today (up to around
3.4-3.7ft), there may be some lingering minor coastal flooding
due to the elevated water levels and wave runup. Tide cycles
tonight into Monday will be closer to normal. Here are a couple
impacts we have seen during previous minor coastal flooding events
with similar conditions:
 - When water levels reach 3.7ft above MLLW, water may begin to
   reach Highway 87 at Highway 124 on Bolivar Peninsula, and on
   Beach Drive near Blue Water Highway in Surfside.
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
VFR with persistent east(ish) winds - more northeasterly in the
morning, becoming E or ESE for the afternoon, peaking around 10
kts again today. Pulled -SHRA mentions from GLS as this morning`s
showers are further down the coast and should not impact the
terminal. Like past days, we will have isolated -SHRA/TSRA
somewhere in SE TX in the afternoon, but impact for any specific
terminal is too low for any explicit mentions in the TAF.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
Small craft should continue to exercise caution through this
evening as easterly flow of 15-20kt with occasionally higher gusts
and seas of 4-6ft continue. The persistent onshore flow will lead
to elevated water levels, up to around 3.4-3.7ft above MLLW this
afternoon.
Light winds and low seas are expected to return tonight and
persist through at least Wednesday. A weak boundary may slide
through the coastal waters mid to late week which would bring a
return of moderate northeasterly winds to the region. There is
high uncertainty on when, or even if, this boundary would slide
through the waters, but could be as early as Wednesday night.
Isolated showers and storms will be possible through the next
several days.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  92  68  91  70 /   0   0  10  10
Houston (IAH)  91  72  91  74 /   0  10  20  10
Galveston (GLS)  85  77  86  79 /  10  10  10  10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ436>439.
High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 PM CDT this evening
     for GMZ350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Fowler
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Fowler

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion