Reedy Creek Lake, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

314
FXUS62 KRAH 121821
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
220 PM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered to our north will extend down through the Mid
Atlantic and the Carolinas through the weekend, although a
northeasterly wind flow and passage of an upper level trough into
the region will bring periods of clouds each day.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Friday...
* Quiet and seasonable weather.
Weak/narrow mid level troughing still extend over central NC this
afternoon, atop a surface ridge nosing in from the N and NE. Fair
skies or just sct convective clouds are present over much of central
NC this afternoon, although a couple of NE-SW bands of bkn daytime
cumulus persist over central NC, one across the Triad and another
over E NC stretching into the E Coastal Plain. With slightly deeper
and better low level moisture below 800 mb in the E, a few sprinkles
can`t be ruled out E of I-95 late this afternoon, but the overall
deeply dry air noted on GOES layer WV imagery and ACARS soundings
strongly favors dry weather the rest of today through tonight. With
a slight stirring expected and some surface heat flux into the
night, the threat for fog appears a bit lower than this morning, but
we still may see areas of light fog over the N, mainly N of the
Triangle. With minimal change in air mass, temps tonight should be
close to last night`s, with lows mostly in the upper 50s to lower
60s, near to slightly below seasonal normals. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM Friday...
High pressure will be centered over southeastern West Virginia
Saturday morning and will move little over the next 24 hours. The
persistent stationary front off the North Carolina coast should send
some cloud cover across eastern counties, although there is no
chance of rain in the forecast. Highs will be similar or slightly
cooler than today`s values, generally around 80 degrees. Lows will
also be slightly cooler, mostly in the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM Friday...
The last several days have shown a backdoor cold front moving into
North Carolina on Monday, but recent model runs are showing that
this cold front may in fact remain to the north. Instead, recent
models are showing a greater influence with a coastal low developing
along the stalled front off the coast. The ECMWF/EPS continue to
show a wetter solution than the GFS/GEFS, but the GFS/GEFS are also
trending wetter. The entire forecast area now has at least a 30%
chance of precipitation Tuesday through Wednesday, with a drying
trend after that.
Monday still appears likely to be the warmest day in the extended
forecast, with highs in the low to mid 80s, although the rest of the
forecast will now be cooler because of the impacts of the coastal
low, not because of the back door cold front. Most locations should
only reach the 70s on Tuesday, with the coverage of 80 degree highs
slightly increasing on Wednesday. The 80s should return to all
locations Thursday and Friday. Lows will be in the 50s on Saturday
night, then will primarily be in the 60s through the rest of the
forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1250 PM Friday...
VFR conditions are likely to dominate at central NC TAF sites
through Sat, as surface high pressure centered to our north
continues to nose down into the region, with any clouds limited to
sct to bkn high-based daytime cumulus and perhaps a few high clouds.
The one potential exception is that there is a good chance for a
period of MVFR vsbys in fog 08z-12z Sat morning in north-central
portions of central NC, which may impact RDU and perhaps RWI. But
the greater fog chance will be N of RDU/RWI, so will not include as
a prevailing condition at this time. Surface winds will be from the
NNE and NE, 2-6 kts at night and mostly 6-12 kts during the daytime.
Looking beyond 18z Sat, VFR conditions are likely to dominate into
the middle of next week, with fair skies except for sct-bkn VFR
clouds each afternoon. Mid and high clouds are expected to increase
with patchy afternoon showers possible Tue/Wed as a weak upper level
low settles over the Carolinas. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...Hartfield

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion