Ragged Point California Weather Forecast Discussion

756
FXUS66 KLOX 062115
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
215 PM PDT Mon Oct 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...06/125 PM.
Slightly cooler than normal conditions will continue through
midweek due to an upper level low pressure over the West. Night
through morning low clouds and fog will continue through the week.
There is a slight chance of rain for late in the week for Los
Angeles County.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...06/214 PM.
No major weather issues through mid week as we continue to deal
with a weak upper low off the Central Coast. Temperatures will
remain slightly below normal and marine layer stratus will push
inland each night and clear out most areas by late morning or
early afternoon.
Things start to get significantly more complicated Thursday and
beyond as what`s left of Hurricane Priscilla advances northwest up
the Baja coast. There is a non-zero possibility that the storm`s
speed and trajectory will bring some showers to extreme southern
LA County as early as Thursday evening, though the vast majority
of the latest ensemble runs favor a Friday arrival or not at all.
If the leading edge of the outer rain bands are still south of the
area then Thursday will look and feel a lot like Wednesday.
.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...06/214 PM.
There continues to be a lot of uncertainty in the forecast,
particularly Friday and Saturday as moisture from Priscilla moves
up the Baja Coast while an unseasonably cold upper moves into the
coastal waters west of the Bay Area. Chances for rain are still
in the forecast across LA County but there is still a
considerable range of possible outcomes from heavy rain,
lightning, and muggy/warm conditions to no rain, a deep marine
layer, and much cooler than normal temperatures. May not get much
clarity on this for a few more days. North and west of LA County
there is no rain expected from either system and temperatures will
be a little below normal.
Sunday and Monday are expected to be dry as both the upper low
over northern and central California and the remnants of Priscilla
move into the Great Basin and desert southwest respectively.
However, a trough will remain along the West coast potentially
well into next week, keeping high temperatures below normal. There
are also some signals for another potential weak storm system
moving into the area early next week but this long range upper
pattern has a very low predictability so still many possible
outcomes. Though the most likely one (>75%) is dry with near
to slightly below normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...06/1852Z.
At 1810Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2000 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was near 4000 feet with a temperature of 19 C.
High confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KPMD and KWJF.
Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs, as transition times may be
off by 2 hours tonight. There is a 15% chance of LIFR conditions
for KSBA, KOXR, KCMA, KBUR, and KVNY tonight from 12Z-16Z Tue.
There is also a 20% chance that no cigs develop at KBUR and KVNY.
KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Low clouds may arrive as early
as 05Z this evening, and as late as 12Z Tue. There is a 20%
chance of cigs as low as OVC006 from 12Z-16Z Tue. No significant
east wind component expected.
KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF, timing of the arrival of cigs
tonight may be off by 2 hours tonight. There is a 15% chance of
cigs as low as OVC003 and VSBY as low as 2SM from 12Z-16Z Tue, and
there is also a 20% chance that no cigs form through the period.
&&
.MARINE...06/739 AM.
ACross the outer waters and nearshore along the Central Coast
conditions are likely to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
criteria through Thursday with increasing winds to near or above
SCA levels possible by Friday. SCA winds look likely for the
weekend.
For the inner waters south of Point Conception, conditions should
generally remain below SCA criteria through mid week. There will
then be a 20-40% chance for SCA level winds Thursday and Friday,
with the best chances for the Santa Barbara Channel. There is a
60% chance for SCA winds for Saturday evening.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...Phillips/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...MW
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion