Radium, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

665
FXUS63 KFGF 220457
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1157 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warmer then average through the week with dry weather
  expected.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Dense fog is starting to develop in portions of north-central
MN and adjacent areas within northwest MN. With clear skies and
dead calm winds amid surface high pressure and subsidence aloft,
confidence is high enough to issue a Dense Fog Advisory for
areas from Lake of the Woods southward into lakes country of
west-central MN near Otter Tail County through 11 AM. Dense fog
will continue to broaden in coverage within these locations
through sunrise. Dense fog is then anticipated to linger through
much of the morning before daytime heating near late
morning/early afternoon diminishes fog.
As mentioned in previous update, other locations near the
Pembina Escarpment are liable for fog, with at least a small
chance for shallow, ground fog elsewhere across the region given
clear skies, light winds, and relatively moist top soils.
UPDATE Issued at 650 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Scattered rain showers and weak thunderstorms in northwest
Minnesota are waning with the loss of daytime heating.
Fog is expected to develop during the early morning hours in
portions of Minnesota, including into portions of lakes country
of west- central Minnesota toward the Red Lakes and Lake of the
Woods areas. There is another area highlighted by guidance near
the Pembina Escarpment of northeast ND for the development of
fog. Fog may be dense in these locations, with guidance like
HREF offering 30% chance for visibility reductions half a mile
or less.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Upper low rotating over our eastern counties will continue to
slowly drift eastward towards Lake Superior tonight. Still
getting some decent showers and even a few thunderstorms
developing across our eastern counties. Fortunately, surface
vorticity is much less than yesterday so think the main impacts
will be isolated lightning strikes and brief rain rather than
funnels. Some of the cumulus on the back side of the upper low
will dissipate later this evening, so at least part of the CWA
will see some clearing overnight. Fog development could again be
an issue, with the HREF showing 50 to 60 percent chance for some
spots to drop below half a mile in visibility, particularly
along our southern and eastern border. Still too soon to tell
exactly where and how dense fog will be, so just kept mention
going with no SPS or headlines.
The upper low will exit off to the east into the Great Lakes
tomorrow, with a secondary southern branch low extending with a
positive tilt well to our southwest. Blocking ridge sets up from
the Rockies into the Northern Plains, moving slightly eastward
towards the end of the work week. Ensembles still showing a
warmer than average signal for temperature, so highs in the 70s
and lows in the 50s continue. Dry conditions with ridging
shifting to northwesterly flow. Several of the ensemble members
bring a shortwave into Ontario but all have the forcing too far
north to bring us much precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Confidence has greatly increased in the expectation of dense fog
from Lake of the Woods within northwest Minnesota southward
toward Otter Tail County of west-central Minnesota between 04Z
and 16Z. This includes KBJI, of which 1/4SM FG VV002 has been
included within the TAF starting at 07Z. As dense fog develops,
conditions may vary between no fog and dense fog until around
this time. Confidence is lowered in cessation of dense fog at
KBJI, thus may be one or two hours off.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast throughout the TAF
period, with light winds generally less than 5 kt. There is a
small chance (10%) in shallow, ground fog at other sites like
KGFK, KFAR, and/or KTVF between 09Z-14Z. For now, left this out
of TAFs, but will amend should trends warrant it.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT Monday for MNZ006-009-016-
     017-023-024-028-031-032.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJ
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...CJ

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion