Rabb, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

565
FXUS64 KCRP 271125
AFDCRP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
625 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 625 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
- Min RH`s drop into the 20-30% range for the Brush
   Country/Inland Coastal Plains today, though fire risk remains
   above thresholds given weaker winds.
- Seasonable temperatures with fresher mornings thanks to drier
   air remaining in the region through mid-week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
The transition to a ridging pattern aloft will allow for the fresh
mornings and more seasonal highs through Tuesday. Then a Four
Corners shortwave moves through Texas, allowing more for a wind
shift and helps maintain lower PWATS (1.0-1.2" across South Texas).
This shortwave moves into the Southeast and just sticks around the
region into the upcoming weekend. Having this in the vicinity and
with surface winds having more southeasterly components to it will
allow for seabreeze convection. For this reason, NBM is showing low
chance (20-30%) PoPs over the western Gulf with only the coastal
zones having the greatest chance for isolated showers and storms.
Not much to brag about, but we`ll have a better idea of the spatial
coverage of any shower activity in the subsequent days.
Main adjustments made to this forecast was for minimum relative
humidity values for today as NBM had a wetter bias for yesterday`s
afternoons forecast. For this reason, I blended down to allow Min RH
to bottom out in the 25-35% range (except for the immediate
coastline which will drop into the 40-60% range).
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Any fog this morning should dissipate by around 13Z then conditions
expected to remain VFR through the remainder of the TAF period.
Easterly winds this afternoon should become southeasterly this
evening but remain light generally less than 10 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Northeasterly winds increase across the western Gulf today to
moderate strength (BF 4) with seas increasing to 2-3 ft. This flow
will persist through Monday night before winds become variable
through Wednesday night with 1 ft seas. From Thursday, winds will be
predominately from the northeast with seas increasing to near 3
ft for the upcoming weekend. Rain chances increase to 20-30% from
Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    90  70  88  70 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          91  64  91  63 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            95  70  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             94  65  91  66 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          91  73  90  72 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           94  68  94  67 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        91  66  89  67 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       88  77  86  76 /   0   0   0  10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AE/82
AVIATION...BF/80

NWS CRP Office Area Forecast Discussion