Quinton, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

179
FXUS64 KTSA 190532
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1232 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
- Storm chances shift to the east by late this morning or early
   this afternoon, before ramping back up this weekend.
- A pattern change is expected next week which will lead to cooler,
   cloudier and wetter weather.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Friday and Friday Night)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Shower and thunderstorm activity is finally beginning to subside
across far southeast OK. A few showers and thunderstorms have
developed north of Highway 412 in northeast OK, likely as a result
of a passing mid-level trough axis and in a zone higher RH values in
the 700-500mb range. Short-range models don`t have this particular
activity lasting too much longer after midnight tonight.
Recent scans from KINX and KTLX are already showing convection
developing across central/north-central OK as of 11 PM. Convective-
allowing model guidance suggests this widely scattered convection
will expand eastward some into east-central OK by or just after
midnight tonight and propagate south/southeastward as the night
progresses. Most of the the convection that develops should stay
along or south of Highway 412. Modest forcing for ascent from the
passing trough axis and warm air advection will combine with 20-30
knots of bulk shear, which should be conducive to a few strong to
a couple of marginally severe storms overnight tonight and into
mid- morning this morning. Large hail and damaging wind gusts
will be the main threats with the stronger storms. Locally heavy
rainfall will also be possible with the more mature, buoyant, and
training storms that form, which may lead to localized flooding.
Precipitation chances are expected to end west-to-east through the
morning and should push east of the forecast area by midday or early
afternoon as weak shortwave ridge slides over and across the area.
As such, skies will become mostly sunny or sunny from northwest-to-
southeast through daytime. Afternoon highs will be slightly cooler
than days past, but will still remain above seasonal average,
generally mid-upper 80s region-wide. Tranquil conditions will
persist into this evening and overnight tonight with overnight lows
dropping into the low-mid 60s for most locations.
Mejia
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Closed mid-level low over the Northern Plains will transition to an
open wave during the daytime today and lift northeastward over the
Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by Saturday morning/afternoon. As
this occurs, a pair of shortwave troughs will develop. The first
develops over central KS late tonight into Saturday morning and will
propagate eastward into western MO by mid-morning Saturday. This
will increase shower thunderstorm chances mainly north of I-40,
highest chances (50-60%) north of I-44 and near the KS/OK border,
through the morning Saturday. Another shortwave trough will eject
off the Rockies by midday and move across the High Plains and over
the Southern Plains in the afternoon. This shortwave trough will
take its time moving across the Plains, gradually pushing across the
forecast area through the second half of Saturday and into much of
Sunday. Best widespread chances (50-60%) of showers and
thunderstorms will occur Sunday into Sunday evening as the vort
max/trough axis slides over the area. Model guidance suggests
widespread moderate to periods of heavy rainfall developing with
this slow-moving trough axis, though short/medium range guidance
differ with locations of highest totals. There is also potential for
a severe thunderstorm threat for at least portions of the forecast
area, with higher probabilities occurring on Sunday when
instability begins to increase. Details will be fine-tuned in
later updates.
The forecast becomes increasingly uncertain beyond Sunday as longer-
range forecast models differ greatly with their solutions. However,
trends in model and ensemble data indicate a more active (wetter and
cooler) weather pattern will develop for much of the central CONUS
as a potent upper-level low closes off somewhere either over the
Central or Southern Plains early-mid week. Will continue to run with
the NBM solution at this time. Details should be ironed out over the
next few days.
Mejia
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Scattered showers are expected to spread across NE OK over the
next couple of hours and eventually into SE OK and NW AR sites by
early to mid morning. A few thunderstorms will also be possible,
especially across E OK. Rain/thunder should exit the area by late
morning and an otherwise mostly clear day is expected with light
and variable winds throughout much of the period. Some instances
of fog will be possible during the overnight hour tonight for KBVO
and KFYV, which is noted in the TAFs. VFR conditions are expected
for the most part, outside of any patchy fog or heavier
thunderstorms.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  69  87  68 /  10  30  50  40
FSM   89  68  90  71 /  30   0  20  20
MLC   89  68  91  69 /  30   0  20  20
BVO   87  64  85  64 /   0  50  60  50
FYV   86  63  85  65 /  40  10  40  30
BYV   84  63  82  65 /  20  10  40  40
MKO   87  67  88  68 /  20  10  40  30
MIO   85  65  81  65 /  10  20  60  50
F10   87  66  90  68 /  20  10  40  30
HHW   87  67  90  68 /  40   0  10  10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...04

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion