Primrose, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

408
FXUS64 KFWD 171026
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
526 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
...New Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonably hot weather will continue through this weekend with
  afternoon highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.
- Isolated (15-20% chance) showers and storms are expected this
  afternoon and again tomorrow afternoon.
- There will be a slight chance of storms on a daily basis
  beginning Thursday night and continuing through early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 127 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025/
/Today through Thursday Afternoon/
Another tranquil morning is expected across North and Central
Texas as we head into midweek with this morning`s low temperatures
in the 60s to mid 70s. The region remains underneath a weakness
in the ridge aloft, allowing for another afternoon with a couple
showers and perhaps a storm or two possible. Lift will remain
quite nebulous, putting diurnal heating as the main mechanism for
isolated convective development. Showers/storms could pop up
anywhere, and have continued a broad-brushed 15-20% PoP through
the afternoon. However, CAM guidance is highlighting areas near
and east of I-35 as the better area of coverage and development.
Severe weather is not expected with this activity, though any more
robust storm could produce gusty winds and lightning. Most will
likely remain dry, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to mid
90s expected. Coverage will wane with the loss of daytime heating,
similar to days before.
Well to our north, a closed low will continue to meander east
across the northern CONUS, with a digging shortwave trough
swinging down into the Central Plains. This pattern shift will
break down the ridge and place North and Central Texas near the
base of the main trough by Thursday. The best source of lift (and
in turn the better rain chances) will remain to our north over the
afternoon, with diurnal heating once again being the main driver
of any isolated afternoon convection across the region. Severe
weather is unlikely, though any storm could have gusty winds and
lightning. The NBM has not been picking up any of the CAM guidance
over the last several days, and have again broad-brushed 15-20%
PoPs across the region during the afternoon to account for the
isolated potential. Otherwise, afternoon highs will be in the
upper 80s to mid 90s for another day.
Prater
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 127 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025/
/Thursday Evening Onward/
The slow-moving upper trough will continue to trek eastward
across the North and Central Plains the rest of the week with the
region remaining near the base of the trough. Disturbances moving
around the trough will keep daily rain chances in the forecast as
we head into the weekend. Best chances will be in North Texas,
with highest PoPs near and along the Red River both Friday and
Saturday. By the end of the weekend the base of the trough will
have exited to our northeast, with the region between the trough
to our east and a building ridge to our west. This will culminate
in northwest flow aloft, allowing for minute disturbances to move
across the Southern Plains and keep daily rain chances in the
forecast as we head into the new work week.
Of particular interest is the Monday-Tuesday timeframe, where
both the deterministic GFS and Euro deepen one of the
aforementioned disturbances into a low that treks across North and
Central Texas. If the low does end up moving across the region,
then rain chances would likely increase from the current 30-50%
that is in the forecast now. At this time the severe risk is
wholly uncertain due to being 6-7 days out, so we`ll need to keep
an eye on shear and instability trends as we head through the rest
of the week.
Prater
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/
VFR is expected to persist over the next 24-30 hours, with
passing cirrus and diurnal cumulus expected. Light SW to WSW
winds will prevail over the next handful of hours at the TAF
sites before shifting more southerly in direction early
afternoon. There remains a low potential for isolated showers and
perhaps a storm or two this afternoon near the airports, mainly
between 21-00Z for D10 and 20-23Z for ACT. Severe weather is not
anticipated, though gusty, erratic winds may occur underneath and
near any shower or storm. Any lingering activity will wane this
evening, and no additional rain chances are forecast overnight
through Thursday morning. Winds will remain light and in south
flow, oscillating between SW and SE the rest of the period. There
could be additional afternoon convection tomorrow after 18Z, but
this will be handled in future forecast issuances.
Prater
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    94  74  93  73  90 /  20   0  20  20  40
Waco                93  71  92  71  92 /  20   0  20   5  20
Paris               94  69  92  68  88 /  20   5  20  30  50
Denton              94  70  93  69  90 /  20   0  20  30  50
McKinney            94  70  93  70  89 /  20   0  20  30  50
Dallas              95  75  94  73  92 /  20   0  20  20  40
Terrell             94  70  92  69  88 /  20   5  20  20  40
Corsicana           94  72  93  72  91 /  20   5  20  10  30
Temple              93  69  92  69  92 /  20   0  20   0  20
Mineral Wells       94  68  94  68  91 /  20   0  20  20  40
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion