Prairie Grove, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

215
FXUS64 KFWD 011827
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
127 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Quiet but warm weather continues into next week. Rain chances
  remain 10% or less.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Afternoon through Thursday/
Mid-level ridging to the southwest will build north and east over
much of the Southern Plains through tomorrow, with rain-free and
above normal temperatures continuing. Lows will drop into the 60s
before another day of climbing mainly into the lower 90s areawide.
Gordon
&&
.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Friday Onward/
Amplified ridging centered across the Southwest will prevail
through the first part of the weekend, while a deepening trough
drops south and east from the PacNW, flattening the ridge and
setting the stage for more zonal SW flow aloft midweek. Guidance
continues to show the upper trough becoming split from the main
upper flow and entering the Plains as a weakening shortwave, with
the lift from this system mostly displaced from North and Central
Texas. Any rain chances are less than 10%, but depending on the
strength of this decaying feature, we may see a shower or two
across the southeast where richer moisture will reside. Guidance
diverges somewhat with the overall pattern beyond this period, but
ridging and above normal temperatures look to persist beyond the
first week of October. A deterministic run here and there is
depicting a cold front extending into Texas beyond Day 7, but it
should also be noted this is very much an outlier at this time
with almost no support by any ensemble guidance. Bottom line, our
recent weather will continue with no notable changes, but there
is at least a small signal for rain chances to potentially return
next week. Afternoon highs through next Tuesday will be in the
upper 80s/low 90s each day.
Gordon
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/
VFR prevails with winds 6 kts or less, varying from ENE to SE
through the period.
Gordon
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    90  68  91  70  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                90  65  91  67  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               87  64  90  65  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              90  63  90  65  90 /   0   5   5   0   0
McKinney            90  64  91  67  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              91  69  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             90  63  91  65  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           92  66  93  68  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              92  64  92  65  90 /   0   0   0   0   5
Mineral Wells       92  63  93  64  92 /   0   0   5   0   0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion