770 FXUS63 KSGF 100557 AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1257 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly northwest of I-44 this afternoon.

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions through at least this weekend. Some record highs may be approached.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 127 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025

Still dealing with MCS remnants over our western CWA which has brought some scattered mainly light showers to that area along with keeping temperatures on the cooler side. Water vapor imagery shows a digging low over the west coast and a ridge axis over the high plains and northwest flow across the plains and into our CWA. Shortwave energy in this northwest flow has aided in the ongoing precipitation coverage. The showers/storms were beginning to dissipate somewhat and we are expecting this trend to continue, but may linger with 30% or less coverage through the afternoon. For tonight, we should end the precipitation chances with partly cloudy conditions and temperatures in the mid 50s in the east to the low 60s in the west.

The upper ridge axis will build a bit further east into the plains and Mississippi valley. We should see temperatures back in the upper 80s to low 90s.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 127 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025

As the upper ridge builds into the area Thursday through Sunday, generally hot and dry conditions will persist with daily highs in the low to upper 90s and lows in the low to upper 60s. Heat index values should remain below 100 for most areas through the period with no heat headlines expected at this time.

That upper trough will gradually begin to lift northeast into the central and northern plains and upper Mississippi valley early next week with the best rain chances staying north of the area.

Our 8 to 14 day outlook continues the trend of above normal temperatures and near to below normal precipitation. Ensembles in overall agreement with a general 5 to 8 degree above normal temperature during this period which goes through the 22nd of September. Normal highs for this time of year range from 77 to 82 across the CWA and lows from 55 to 59.

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1254 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025

Mostly looking at light winds and VFR conditions this TAF period, but there is a 20-25% chance for showers and thunderstorms at KJLN and perhaps KBBG late this afternoon and evening. These chances for precip are due to a thunderstorm complex currently over western Kansas that is expected to move this general direction while diminishing, so confidence in any details related to that is low at this time.

.CLIMATE... Issued at 127 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025

Values listed below are for sites that are within 5 degrees of a record.

Record High Temperatures:

September 10: KSGF: 96/1984

September 11: KSGF: 96/2000 KUNO: 96/1953

September 12: KSGF: 97/1939 KJLN: 97/1956 KUNO: 96/1980

September 13: KSGF: 99/2011 KVIH: 96/1956 KUNO: 96/1980

September 14: KUNO: 99/1954

September 15: KSGF: 98/1893 KJLN: 98/1956 KVIH: 97/1897 KUNO: 98/1954

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None.

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Titus CLIMATE...Lindenberg/Burchfield

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion