Portland, Connecticut Weather Forecast Discussion

122
FXUS61 KOKX 301434
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1034 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through dry today. A large area of high
pressure builds in from the north thereafter and remains over
the northeast and mid Atlantic through this week, with the
center pushing south of the area by the first half of the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Upper ridging east of the Mississippi River Valley and troughing
across eastern Canada will allow a cold front to drop down across
the area today with a cooler airmass to follow. This will allow
the high clouds to push south of the area, so expecting this
morning to be mostly cloudy with dense high clouds, but more
clouds than sun by this afternoon into this evening.
Above-normal high temperatures today, with highs in the upper
70s to lower 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Cold air advection gets underway tonight. Even without
radiational cooling being a factor, low temperature should fall
into the mid 40s well NW of the city with 50s for most other
locations.
It will feel like Autumn on Wednesday with the cooler air mass
settled in. Plenty of sunshine and breezy with a tighter pressure
gradient over the area. Highs 65-70, which is a little below normal.
Mainly clear and cool Wednesday night with diminishing winds. This
will allow lows to fall into the mid to upper 30s well NW of the
city, but mid 40s to low 50s for most other spots. Didn`t add frost
to the forecast yet, but patchy frost could be possible in parts of
Orange County late at night.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dry through the period. Thursday and Thursday night temperatures
will be several degrees below normal and gusty northeast winds early
Thursday will be diminishing through the day as the high become
entrenched across the region. Then milder conditions are expected
Saturday through Monday with above normal temperatures. The NBM was
followed through the extended period.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A dry cold front will move through the area this afternoon, followed
by high pressure building in from the north through the week.
VFR. High cirrus persists today, decreasing tonight.
Strengthening N/NE flow to start, as speeds increase to around
10 kt into early afternoon with occasional gusts up to 20 kt
possible as well. Gusts become more frequent by early this evening,
and could top 25 kt at times overnight and on Wednesday, with
flow remaining from the N/NE.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional gusts of up to 20 kt possible late this afternoon.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Wednesday: VFR. NE gusts around 15-25 kt, with the highest
gusts at the coastal terminals.
Thursday-Saturday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
A SE-S swell from the tropical systems out in the western Atlantic
will build over the next few days with seas over 5 ft by late
this morning and increasing to 7 to 12 ft by Wednesday morning.
The pressure gradient also tightens tonight into Wednesday with
gusts reaching advisory levels on all waters. SCA on the ocean
through Wednesday night. Perhaps a couple of gusts to gale
force late tonight into Wednesday morning, but not enough for a
Gale Watch at this time. SCA is also up for the non ocean
waters for late tonight through Wednesday afternoon due to
gusts, and in the case of eastern LI Sound, swells keeping seas
elevated as well.
The NE winds will begin to diminish Wednesday afternoon and
continue to do so into Thursday as high pressure become
entrenched over the northeast. However, ocean seas will be slow
to subside, not falling below 5 feet until early Friday
morning. Small Craft Advisories will likely be extended into
Thursday on the ocean waters with subsequent forecasts.
Conditions will then be sub-advisory through the weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues expected this week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A coastal flood statement remains up for high surf impacting
the oceanfront.
A building southerly swell due to multiple tropical cyclones
well off the eastern seaboard will produce large breaking waves
along the oceanfront today into Wednesday. Expect surf to build
to 6 to 10 ft by tonight with an incoming S swell increasing
to 6 ft 15s. Fortunately, water levels are not expected to get
too high as we are about a week out from a full moon. However,
expect some beach flooding and minor damage to dune structures.
Coastal flooding beyond the beachfront is unlikely.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-
     355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JP
HYDROLOGY...JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion