Port Norris, New Jersey Weather Forecast Discussion

485
FXUS61 KPHI 051825
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
225 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak high pressure dominates tonight before a strong cold
front arrives Saturday, bringing potential for widespread
showers and thunderstorms. Canadian high pressure will build
thereafter as we head into the middle of next week, with below
normal temperatures and a return to dry conditons expected.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Current pattern shows Bermuda high pressure remaining off to our
southeast, with broad southwesterly flow across the region both
at the surface and aloft. A strong surface and upper level low
pressure is located over Ontario, with a cold front extending
south and then west from that through the eastern Great Lakes,
Ohio Valley and into the southern Plains.
For us, this has brought warmth and humidity back to the region,
with widespread 80s with dew points back in the 60s. Nothing to
write home about, but noticeably more summer-like compared to
recent days. This will linger into tomorrow midday before the
aforementioned strong cold front approaches from the northwest
to help ignite the available instability into a showery stormy
mess for later Saturday and Saturday evening.
Before then, our breezy and very warm afternoon will fade into a
mild overnight. While we can`t rule out some patchy fog, right
now expect it won`t be particularly widespread or dense. Lows
mostly 60s, with around 70 near the tidal waters, urban centers
and much of Delmarva.
Saturday start out with some sun, which likely helps push temps
well into the 80s by early afternoon. In fact, some spots could
touch 90, especially in the Delmarva. However, by this point the
front will be close enough which, when coupled with an
approaching shortwave embedded in the flow around the large
upper low to our north, should start to ignite showers and
storms, first across eastern PA, then spreading southeast from
there into NJ and the Delmarva as we head into the evening.
There are multiple scenarios about just how this plays out given
the relatively slow moving front and what appears to be several
pieces of upper level energy rotating through, but the bottom
line is that with significant afternoon CAPE and moisture,
somewhere in our region is likely to get severe weather, and
perhaps some flooding rains as well.
The severe threat is more obvious given the higher CAPE and
strong front moving in with plenty of shear aloft. As always in
our region, damaging winds are the main risk, but there is some
hint of supercell development, so we don`t have a zero tornado
risk. For these reasons, SPC has placed areas near and northwest
of the I-95 corridor in a slight risk for severe weather on
Saturday, with a marginal risk elsewhere.
The heavy rain threat may be a little more focused south and
east of areas that got hit hard last night, so am not quite
ready to pull the trigger on the flash flood watch since areas
that missed yesterday`s rain are quite dry. However, its notable
that HREF max QPF values have scattered areas of 2-4 inches
across most of the forecast area, and since its convection,
rainfall rates of 1-2 inches an hour are certainly not out of
the question. For now, we just have a marginal risk of excesive
rain from WPC, no doubt tempered by recent dry conditions.
After the front passes, lingering showers should gradually
diminish overnight Saturday, with lows in the 50s to low 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
Cooler and drier Canadian high pressure will begin to build
into the region into Sunday.
It will be much cooler with high temperatures struggling to
climb into the 70s under a northwest breeze. Clouds will be slow
to clear out from northwest to southeast as the day progresses.
Some scattered lingering showers will be possible, especially
toward the coast, but nothing of significance and most of the
day should be dry.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cooler and drier conditions are expected to follow the
weekend`s unsettled weather. The weekend`s trough will deamplify
and slide offshore, then mid level flow will shift to a quasi
zonal pattern through the middle of the week. At the surface,
Canadian high pressure will gradually build across New England,
resulting in another period of prolonged east to northeast
surface flow. Towards the middle of the week, a stalled boundary
offshore could result in some cloud cover and few showers near
the coast, but nothing of significance.
Next week is expected to be largely dry. Temperature will drop
below normal again, with highs mainly in the low to mid 70s and
lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Thru 0Z...VFR. S-SW 10 to 15 kt with 20 to 25 kt gusts .
High confidence.
Tonight...Mostly VFR, with small chance of sub-VFR conditions
late in fog/stratus. Will not include in the TAF at this time,
as confidence is too low to warrant inclusion. Light S winds.
Low confidence on fog and stratus development.
Saturday...VFR bulk of day, but intervals of sub-VFR
increasingly likely later in the day as showers and storms
develop, some of which could produce strong wind gusts. Outside
of storms, winds generally southwesterly around 10 kts, with a
few gusts up to 20 kts possible in the PM. Moderate confidence.
Saturday night...Showers and storms with intervals of sub-VFR
conditions in the evening give way to improvements later at
night. Winds becoming NW 5-10 kts. Moderate confidence.
Outlook...
Sunday...Primarily VFR though some restrictions possible early
in the day (15-25%) near KACY/KMIV with lingering showers and
patchy fog until a cold front comes through in the morning
Sunday Night through Tuesday...VFR. No significant weather.
&&
.MARINE...
Southerly flow increasing ahead of the next cold front will
likely bring low-end Small Craft Advisory conditions with gusts
to 25 kts and waves up to 5 feet to the ocean waters starting
late this afternoon and continuing through late tonight. Some
gusts and seas may touch SCA levels during the day Saturday, but
confidence is lower so kept SCA confined to tonight. Winds
shift northwest Saturday night behind cold front but not
expecting immediate SCA conditions yet. However, showers and
storms could necessitate Special Marine Warnings later Saturday
into Saturday evening on all waters, including Delaware Bay
where no SCA conditions are currently expected thru Saturday
night.
Outlook...
Sunday through Tuesday...No marine headlines expected.
Rip Currents...
Today and Saturday...Winds in the morning are out of the
southwest and then become more southerly throughout the day
while increasing to 15-20 mph by the afternoon. The period is
6-7 seconds but could be down to 4-5 seconds by the late
afternoon as wind driven waves become more dominant. Breaking
wave heights are forecasted to be 2-3 feet. Given these forecast
conditions a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip
currents at all beaches is expected for Friday. We`ve gone with
a MODERATE risk for all New Jersey beaches for Saturday, and
LOW for the Delaware beaches.
For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Some spotty minor tidal flooding was observed with the high tide
last night and more of the same is expected tonight and perhaps
Saturday Night within the upper Delaware Bay, tidal Delaware
River, and northeastern shore of Chesapeake Bay. Not expecting
the need for Coastal Flood Advisories at this point, but some
standing water may be seen in low lying areas within these
communities near tidal areas.
No tidal flooding is expected along the Atlantic Ocean front.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hoeflich/RCM/Staarmann
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...Hoeflich/Staarmann
LONG TERM...Hoeflich/Staarmann
AVIATION...Hoeflich/RCM
MARINE...Guzzo/Hoeflich/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PHI

NWS PHI Office Area Forecast Discussion