965 FXUS63 KSGF 242354 AFDSGFArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 654 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Shower and thunderstorm chances continue today and tonight. Isolated flooding risk this afternoon/evening.
- Above normal temperatures and dry weather this weekend into next week.
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.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 1256 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
A sharp mid-level trough just northwest of the CWA will drive a mix of patchy drizzle, showers, and thunderstorms at times into early Thursday before it moves east of the area. Increasing mid-level lapse rates as the trough moves into the area this afternoon and evening will allow for 500-1,000 J/kg of MLCAPE and PWATs of 1.4-1.6", which will pose a very localized heavy rain threat but no severe storms. 12Z HREF QPF PMM values are only up to around an inch, but LPMM values are up to 3-4", indicating any flooding concerns would favor minimal coverage with any stationary or training cells. Greatest threat will be over central MO.
Otherwise, expect precip to end from west to east tonight into Thursday morning. Some clearing of clouds is expected Thursday morning, but a daytime CU field should develop shortly after. Look for highs in the mid to upper 70s Thursday.
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.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1256 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
The area will come under the influence of a strong upper ridge later this week into or through all of next week. This will lead to temperatures rising to above normal values with highs in the low to mid 80s starting Saturday, along with dry weather. This coincides with the CPC 6-10 day outlook which favors above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. The 8-14 day outlook continues to favor above normal temperatures, but becomes more neutral for precipitation.
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.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 631 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
IFR/MVFR ceilings will continue until the rain tapers off within the next couple of hours. This activity will remain sub-severe with the main threat being rain showers reducing visibilities. Then, skies will gradually clear out very early tomorrow morning with patchy fog possibly occuring over areas that saw rain today.
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.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None.
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SHORT TERM...Titus LONG TERM...Titus AVIATION...Soria
NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion