Plum Branch, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

888
FXUS62 KCAE 291033
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
633 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing moisture brings rain chances today along with the
potential for a few thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Slight rain chances could linger into Tuesday. Later in the
week, high pressure moves into the region, bringing cool and dry
conditions to the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Cloudy conditions and rain chances persist through the day
  with potential for some afternoon thunderstorms.
Today and tonight: Imelda is currently churning near the Bahamas
this morning, continuing to generally move northward. As it
does, Imelda is forecast to make a sharp turn to the east
overnight, moving away from the region. Moisture from Imelda is
expected to stream into the area today, keeping clouds over the
area throughout the day. Some periodic shower activity is also
anticipated today, with the potential for a few thunderstorms
this afternoon. However, latest guidance continues to keep
shifting Imelda`s turn to the east further away from the
Carolina coast than previous forecasts, which has resulted in a
continued downtrend in amounts for our area. In fact, the hi-res
guidance has shown a trend to not much shower or storm activity
at all, mainly due to the trend in the Imelda track forecasts.
Will leave the PoPs the same for now, but the may need to be
adjusted downward for today. With the cloud cover, temps are
expected to be on the cool side.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Cloudy and cool conditions expected as moisture remains to
  the north of TS Imelda.
Our final "impacts" associated with Tropical Storm Imelda will be
felt on Tuesday. Even these impacts look more minimal than they have
the last few days as Imelda has continue to trend towards taking a
hard eastward turn north of the Bahamas over the next few days. The
upper level trough axis is forecast to shift atop our area, yielding
upper level convergence for much of the day. The result should be
merely cloudy skies with some isolated showers through most of the
day. The clouds and low-level northeasterly flow should maintain
cooler temps across the area, with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
Clouds may hang around into the night with lows falling into the
60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Increasingly dry and cool conditions are expected through the
  end of the week.
Now for the good stuff! Our first taste of fall looks to arrive
during this period as a seasonally strong surface high pressure
pushes into the northeastern CONUS and ridges southwestward along
the eastern slopes of the Appalachians. Sunny skies are
forecast to return on Wednesday as moisture rapidly leaves the
area. We`ll be ahead of a weak backdoor front, which should aid
in helping us warm up into the low 80s once again. Winds out of
the northeast gusting 15-20 mph will make it feel a bit cooler
than it would otherwise. Beyond this, a dry and cool airmass
looks to settle in through the end of the period. Highs are
expected to be in the 70s Thur/Fri/Sat, warming only marginally
back to the low 80s by Sunday. Overnight lows should be between
50F and 60F given the dry airmass in place. The pressure
gradient looks tight for much of this period, too, with breezy
northeasterly winds continuing each afternoon. There may be some
moisture return by next weekend but that is uncertain at this
point. The moral of the story is that the weather looks
genuinely nice later this week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly MVFR to IFR cigs to start the TAF period, eventually
becoming IFR everywhere.
IFR cigs are being noted at OGB at the start of the TAF period
while the other terminals have MVFR cigs. Expect these cigs to
drop to IFR everywhere, with LIFR possible. Confidence is low in
that, however. Periodic rain showers are possible around midday
for OGB, CAE, and CUB, with lower potential at AGS or DNL.
OGB remains the terminal that has the highest chance for
showers and possible a thunderstorm after 21z, so kept the
PROB30 for TSRA and adjusted the other TAF sites to reflect the
lower probabilities. Rain chances diminish after 00z, but low
cigs continue. Northeast winds persist through the TAF period,
nearing 10 kts as we progress through the period.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Plenty of low-level moisture keeps
potential for restrictions in the forecast into Wednesday
morning, then drier air will begin to move into the region
through the end of the week.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$

NWS CAE Office Area Forecast Discussion