Piney Point Village, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

956
FXUS64 KHGX 291104
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
604 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
- Continue to use caution when working with open flame or
  equipment that can cause sparks as dry conditions persist across
  the area and available fuels continue to dry.
- Hot, dry, and mostly sunny conditions carry us into the new
  week. A brief upper disturbance looks to increase clouds Monday
  night and Tuesday, but a sunnier sky will return after it
  departs.
- Rain chances will be virtually nil until late this week when
  moisture deepens enough to allow for some isolated seabreeze
  showers/storms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
We`ve had a warm to hot, dry, and mostly sunny stretch of days,
and not a whole lot is going to change on that front. There`s
definitely nuances we`re going to get into in this discussion, but
by and large the character of the weather is not going to change
that much. Getting hotter, getting a little bit more humid, and
hey, there`ll be a cloudier patch coming up soon, then more sun,
then maybe even talk of isolated showers for the end of the week?
One thing I am going to forgo is much discussion of fire weather
up here in the main section. With ERC values per TFS starting to
edge up above the 75th percentile, it feels more pertinent to have
a fire weather section broken out now. Fortunately, we`re still
not in a red flag type of situation yet. But, hot and dry
conditions can still result in increasing fire starts, even if
they`re not terribly resistant to firefighting efforts, so more
details on that below.
That said, that`s still going to be the main concern for at least
the first half of the week. We are looking at an upper disturbance
still slated to move through the area. It had been looking more
like a Monday-Tuesday kind of thing earlier, and you can see the
incoming disturbance on water vapor imagery out to the west.
But...you can also see that mid-level ridging overhead is hanging
perhaps a bit tougher than anticipated, so I am completely on
board with the guidance having our expected patch of cloudiness
slip deeper into Monday night and really be more of a Tuesday
thing. For now...I still have it clearing out early enough that it
doesn`t have any impact on the ultimate high temps on Tuesday, but
that could be a source of uncertainty here, and if anything, my
forecast may be a touch on the warm side for Tuesday afternoon.
Get your biceps ready to flex from Wednesday onward though,
because the sun will be back out - in a major way on Wednesday and
Thursday while the column is still relatively dry. Perhaps a
little less so Friday onward, but we`ll get there. First I want to
chat about mid-week temperatures. On the plus side, we`re still
fairly dry so especially on Wednesday morning, we should see
almost everyone (except the immediate coast, naturally) start the
day in the 60s. But we`ve got some other things afoot here that
are finally starting to emerge in the ensemble data that have me
thinking we could get good and toasty.
Both the NAEFS and Euro ensembles have 850 mb temperatures
around/above the 90th percentile in the middle of the week, which
should translate to some above average heat. While midlevel
heights are not exceeding the 90th percentile in the region, we do
have a bullseye of 99th percentile 500 mb temps rolling through.
This is not directly going to impact our temperatures, but where
unusual midlevel temps are found, some decent ridging is going to
be right there as well...even if it`s not quite as unseasonably
strong. Finally, the Euro Ensemble`s Extreme Forecast Index has a
very persistent signal for potentially "extreme" temperatures
basically through most all of the week. By extreme here, we aren`t
talking extreme for Houston period, but at the high end of what
the Euro forecasts this time of year (which...should roughly track
with high end temps for this time of year). It`s particularly
notable on Wednesday and Thursday, when the EFI for high temps
exceeds 0.7 on the coastal plain (on a scale of -1 to 1)
Wednesday, and even a patch exceeding 0.8 on Thursday. This...is a
decently strong signal for near-record heat these days. On the
bright side, little to no signal in the "shift of tails" on these
days indicates to me that while we may be playing up towards
record territory, it will not be *exceptionally* hot. (This all
starts to get into very complicated statistical stuff, and a lot
of times I don`t even feel like I understand it fully. But
roughly speaking, EFI is useful in saying how likely it is we
could get an extreme forecast value, while shift of tails comes in
to look at just how extreme that extreme may get. Please do not
ask me more questions about this, please direct them to very smart
people in Europe).
Ultimately, though, this tends to fit with my general mental model
for much of the summer and early fall around here. Because our
temperature range is pretty compressed by proximity to the Gulf,
albeit less so way inland for the B/CS and Piney Woods
folks...though the Piney Woods folks have their own temperature
modulators, it can be a short path from average heat to above
average heat, to near record heat. And that is a path I`d expect
us to take into midweek. As a result, I`m perfectly fine following
the NBM`s drift back up into the 90s...except for that Piney Woods
hotspot it always has.
Finally, in late week, we`re still expecting the diurnal seabreeze
cycle to work in enough moisture that we do more of that
temperature range compressing thing and get a little less hot.
Helping that out will be more afternoon cloud development, and
once PWAT values get high enough, even some isolated the widely
scattered seabreeze convection for the coastal half of the area!
One bummer on this is that the temperature range will narrow on
both ends, so we`ll begin to see overnight low temperatures also
drifting upward through the week.
And now...I`ve been putting this off as long as I can, but
yes...there does seem to be a weird little low pressure center
developing in the southern Gulf/Bay of Campeche in much of the
guidance this week. Given this development underneath ridging
aloft, I can only assume that if a low spins up, it will be
tropical of some nature. But it also seems pretty high confidence
that if we do get any nastiness down there, it doesn`t look to get
particularly strong, and should drift southward, away from us. I
really only say this so that if folks start chattering about how
"THEY" say a hurricane is coming, you know that there`s some
important stuff getting lost in the game of telephone and you can
ease any worries. Of course, I do say that with the caveat that
during this time of year, it`s always good to check in with us
every so often to see if anything has changed. We`ll be here to
tell you if anything actually worrying appears on the horizon.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 604 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period with light
and variable winds early this morning becoming northeasterly
later this morning with wind speeds remaining less than 10 kt.
For terminals south of I-10, winds will transition to easterly
in the afternoon before becoming light and variable shortly
after sunset. Upper level cloud cover will be on an increasing
trend throughout the day.
Batiste
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Northeast winds around 15 kts are expected today and tomorrow with
2-4 foot seas. If any stronger winds materialize, small craft will
need to exercise caution. Going into the middle of the week, the
daily landbreeze/seabreeze cycle will become dominant as seas also
diminish to less than 2 feet. Late in the week, strengthening
easterlies are forecast. If a long fetch across the northern Gulf
sets up, we may again be in a situation where small craft will
need to exercise caution. There is even some potential for a small
craft advisory farther from shore. However, there is still a good
bit of uncertainty as to precisely how this fetch will develop,
and it will be useful to monitor the forecast through the week for
the latest forecast information.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Repeated days of very dry air and plentiful sunshine will
continue a trend of drying available fuels, creating an
environment more vulnerable to wildfire starts. Expect inland
areas to see RH fall to the 30-35 percent range each afternoon,
with dry spots falling below 30 percent. Even at the coast,
minimum RH around or below 40 percent is forecast.
Per Texas A&M Forest Service data, ERC values are beginning to
creep above the 75th percentile, indicating the beginnings of an
unseasonably dry fuelscape that extends beyond just dry fine
fuels. Mitigating the dry fuel conditions will be light wind
speeds. While the weather will support a higher risk of wildfire
starts, the lighter winds should be favorable to firefighting
efforts in controlling any fires that may start. Still, it`s
really just better to avoid having the fires in the first place.
To that end, as the weekend ends and the work week begins, focus
may turn more from recreational burning to those doing work with
fire or just using equipment that can cause sparks. So, those
doing land clearing will want to use some extra caution to ensure
they are keeping and fire under control and have the resources to
quickly respond if it gets out of control. Those working with
equipment that can spark - even (especially?) the ones you might
not think of, like loose chains - should be ensuring that sparks
will be eliminated, minimized, or at least contained to non-
flammable surfaces.
Late in the week, as the seabreeze becomes a little more
effective, relative humidity should not fall quite so far in the
afternoons and we may even see the emergence of some isolated
coastal showers and storms in the afternoon. Despite that,
conditions will remain fairly dry for most, as RH improvement will
be modest and rain will not be widespread.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  90  68  91  63 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  91  71  93  69 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  87  76  89  76 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Luchs
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Luchs

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion