Pierce, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

664
FXUS64 KTSA 242330
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
630 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms possible through
  this afternoon, mainly north of I-40, with passage of upper
  level trough. Severe weather not expected.
- Drier weather and slightly cooler temperatures through Thursday
  before warming back to near or slightly above average by this
  weekend and into next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
To state the obvious, a much more serene and cooler day has
transpired across eastern OK and northwest AR from 24 hours ago
behind the cold front yesterday. Modest positive vorticity advection
remains present overhead, ahead of a passing mid/upper-level trough
axis. This will maintain widely scattered, very low to no impact,
hit-and-miss showers and isolated thunderstorms through at least
sunset this evening, with highest chances (20-50%) north of the I-40
corridor. A few showers may produce very brief moderate to heavy
rainfall, but additional flooding and flash flooding is unlikely.
Unseasonably cool temperatures and mostly cloudy skies will persist
through the afternoon, with afternoon highs generally in the low-mid
70s north of I-40, with upper-70s to lower 80s in spots across west-
central AR and southeast OK.
Precip. chances dwindle and should cease by or just after sunset
this evening as the upper-level trough axis shifts east  of the
forecast area. Tranquil conditions will continue as cloud cover
decreases west-to-east late this afternoon and into this evening.
Pesky low-level stratus clouds may linger over far northeast OK and
far northwest AR, as well as higher elevations in southeast OK,
through the night. Otherwise, skies should transition to partly
cloudy to mostly clear elsewhere. Overnight lows will cool down to
near seasonal average in most locations, perhaps just slightly above
average in northwest AR tonight, ranging from mid-upper 50s to lower
60s across the district. Lastly, with recent rains and cooler
temperatures, patchy fog may develop across much of eastern OK and
northwest AR, though there is some uncertainty with coverage and
duration. Highest probabilities of fog will be across far northeast
OK and far northwest AR. However, low-level stratus may even hinder
development some in this area as well.
Mejia
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Benign and dry weather will resume through the long term period as
both upper-level and surface ridging transpire over the area.
Noticeably cooler and pleasant temperatures on Thursday will begin
to trend warmer starting Friday, as southerly winds return and upper-
level ridging builds in. An omega blocking pattern will setup by
this upcoming weekend, with ridging centered over the central CONUS.
Saturday and Sunday look to be the warmest temperatures of the long-
term, with afternoon highs generally in the low-mid 80s, with
pockets of upper-80s west of Highway 75 in OK. The blocking pattern
will begin to shift eastward slightly by early next week, though
upper-ridging will still be the main driver through much of next
week, keeping the area mostly dry and temperatures near/slightly
above seasonal average.
Mejia
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at the Oklahoma sites through the
forecast period. At the Arkansas sites, conditions may improve to
VFR this evening, but IFR or lower conditions are expected to
redevelop overnight in fog and/or low clouds and continue into
Thursday morning. VFR conditions will then return by later
Thursday morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  81  60  83 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   64  80  61  83 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   61  81  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   56  80  55  82 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   57  77  53  79 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   59  75  54  79 /  20   0   0   0
MKO   59  79  58  81 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   57  78  55  81 /  10   0   0   0
F10   59  80  56  82 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   62  80  58  82 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...05

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion