Phillipsport, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

417
FXUS61 KBGM 211041
AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
641 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure in place today will keep weather conditions quiet
and dry the rest of the weekend. A noticeable pattern shift
will occur late Monday into the middle of next week with chances
for rain showers and a few thunderstorms.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today will be the last day in the long stretch of dry
conditions. Slightly above average temperatures of mid to upper
70s can be expected yet again, with partly cloudy skies.
Overhead ridging and surface high pressure will slowly push
eastward, where we`ll begin to see a shift in the pattern to
more of an open long wave trough heading into the early week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As the long stretch of dry conditions comes to an end, surface
high pressure continues shifting eastward, and a slow-moving
long wave trough will move closer to the Northeast. Over the
next week, there will be mainly chances for rain every day, with
small batches of lighter rainfall with some breaks. Overall
rainfall potential does not look significant. For Monday, the
rain may be slow moving in with such a non- progressive pattern.
Embedded within the long wave, a shortwave is pushed up from the
south Tuesday. Instability increases, and there is even
some possibility for storms to develop Tuesday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
There is quite a bit of uncertainty with respect to the overall
synoptic pattern later this week. The stretched out long wave
trough moving across the Great Lake region will phase with
another low farther to the west over the Southern Plains. This
system could potentially cut off over the central CONUS and
allow for another building ridge over the Northeast US for a
brief period of time this week before the cut-off low in the
Midwest slowly moves eastward Thu, Fri and into the weekend.
It definitely does not appear to be a significant amount of
rain for the latter half of this week, but it does look like the
pattern will be much more conducive for periods of showers and
thunderstorms. Temperatures will also remain at or slightly
above normal for this time of year with highs on Wed in the mid
to upper 70s...and in the upper 60s and low 70s Thu and Fri.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR throughout the TAF period. Main issue today will be
southerly wind gusts from 10-20 knots. Potential for
restrictions at KELM overnight tonight from fog or stratus.
Outlook...
Monday and Monday night: Mainly VFR shower chances increase from
northwest to southeast by evening.
Tuesday through Wednesday...Showers with occasional
restrictions possible. Highest chance for restrictions is
Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Thursday...A chance for scattered showers and associated
restrictions.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...MWG

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion