Peru, Maine Weather Forecast Discussion

971
FXUS61 KGYX 242258
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
658 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will push north through the area tonight bringing
much needed rain shower activity. Tomorrow a low pressure system
will push through area bringing more widespread beneficial rain
with some areas receiving the first substantial wetting rains in
a month. High pressure builds back into the area by Friday
lasting straight into next week with pleasant weather expected.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
655 PM Update...No big changes in the going forecast for the
evening hours. Occasional light showers, some drizzle and fog
will be the main theme. The fog will be thickest across
southeastern NH and York County ME.
Previously...
Impacts and Key Messages:
* Fog and drizzle will lead to low visibility tonight
Northeast onshore flow will keep low stratus, mist and drizzle
impacting the area through the night. Low level flow will switch
to southerly as the stalled front over southern New England
begins to lift back north as a warm front after midnight
tonight. Isentropic forcing will allow for light rain shower
activity to occur across Southern NH mostly tonight. Overall
QPF amounts will remain light tonight. Will be a warm night with
the moist marine airmass locked in place with limited diurnal
spread expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Impacts and Key Messages:
* Much needed rain is expected Thursday into Thurday night with
  1+" rainfall potential for some areas away from the far north
500mb shortwave will eject from the Ohio River Valley with a
developing surface wave. Strong moisture advection ahead of this
feature will allow for the first chance for widespread wetting
rains in a few weeks. Model consensus guidance continues to be
robust on the confidence for 1" plus amounts across the coastal
plain. Felt hesitate based on the ongoing drought to go robust
on QPF, but ensemble mean confidence definitely supports some
good rains tomorrow through tomorrow night. Kept a mention of
thunder with some embedded convection in the heavier showers,
but overall, not expecting any organized severe activity. By the
time we get clearing in the warm sector ahead of the surface
cold front, daytime heating will be passed, thus insufficient
surface based instability is expected. Temperatures will mostly
be in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A few showers are possible Friday morning as a cold front exits
the region. By the end of the day, considerable clearing is
expected as high pressure works in from the north. Skies remain
mostly clear on Saturday and in most places on Sunday, though a
few showers might be possible in southern NH as a weak low moves
across southern New England. Temperatures through the extended
weekend look to be in the upper 70s.
By the start of next week, the usual dry pattern that has been
experienced for most of this month returns. Next week looks to start
on the warmer side, with temperatures getting cooler through the
week. Temperatures on Monday look to be in the upper 70s most
places, with 60s expected in the 2nd half of the week. Strong high
pressure looks to remain over the northeastern US through much of
next week, with almost no possibility of precipitation for most in
New Hampshire and Maine. The prolonged dry weather may worsen the
severe to extreme drought currently seen over much of NH and
Maine.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...IFR to MVFR conditions expected over the next 36 hrs with
low marine stratus clouds under NE flow transitioning to moist
southerly flow as a warm front and rain pushes north into the area
on Thursday. Overall low ceilings will prevail along with temporary
visibility restrictions.
Long Term...Lowered restrictions are possible Friday morning, though conditions
will improve by the end of the day. VFR is expected through the
remainder of the forecast, though some light rain might lower CIGs a
little at MHT, CON or PSM.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...NE onshore flow will back to southerly flow over the next
24 hours ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Low clouds and
periods of low visibility in fog are possible. SCA conditions are
expected to trend downward tonight during the windshift to southerly
winds before increasing once again tomorrow.
Long Term...
Southwesterly winds will diminish through the day on Friday,
becoming light and variable. Variable winds should continue through
the end of the day Saturday, as a more defined light southerly wind
Saturday night. On Sunday, winds shift to southwesterlies and
strengthen to 8-12kts, then shifting to northwesterlies by Monday
morning as a low to the south of the Gulf of Maine moves eastward.
Seas of around 2-4ft are expected through Tuesday morning.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Dumont/Ekster
SHORT TERM...Dumont
LONG TERM...Palmer
AVIATION...Dumont/Palmer
MARINE...Dumont/Palmer

NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion