Pernitas Point, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

173
FXUS64 KCRP 012342
AFDCRP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
642 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 633 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
- Risk for Coastal Flooding will increase Friday night
- Near to slightly above normal temperatures through the weekend
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
The main hazard from the forecast for the upcoming week will be the
potential for Coastal Flooding. Winds will be shifting to the
northeast within the next day or so which will begin to setup up
Ekman Transport. As the northeast winds increase to the 15-25 mph
range Friday through Sunday, the risk for Coastal Flooding will
increase as Ekman Transport strengthens. Apart from Ekman Transport,
near astronomical high tide of a full moon phase and swell periods
around 8 seconds will bump up our chances for minor coastal flooding
to medium to high chances. The P-ETSS model is showing water levels
between 1.7-2.1 ft above MSL (10th and 90th percentile,
respectively) for Friday and Saturday night with water levels
trending higher Sunday and Sunday night. If this trend continues, a
Coastal Flood Advisory may be issued in the next 48 hours or so.
Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected through the
weekend and into next week. Below normal PWAT values will help us
stay dry through Thursday. However, moisture will begin to increase
with near normal PWATs filtering in Friday which will lead to low to
medium (20-50%) chances for rain each afternoon from Friday through
early next week. While rain chances will return to the forecast,
rain amounts are expected to remain below 1" at best for the next 7
days, thus beneficial rainfall is not expected.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast. Winds will
generally be light and variable, with east-southeasterly winds
around 12 knots tomorrow afternoon over CRP.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
A light to gentle breeze (BF 2-3) will continue through Thursday
night before increasing to a fresh to strong breeze (BF 5-6)
Friday and continuing through Saturday night. Winds are expected
to decrease to a gentle breeze (BF 3) Sunday morning. Dry
conditions will continue through tomorrow night increasing to
medium to high chances (50-85%) across the Gulf waters Friday
through the weekend.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Forecast afternoon minimum relative humidity will generally range
from 25-35% across the Inland Coastal Plains and Brush Country
through Friday. Moisture increases Saturday into early next week
with minimum relative humidity above 30%. While the drier airmass is
in place and Energy Release Components ranges from 50th-90th
percentile, weak surface and 20 ft winds will limit the fire risk,
but will be worthy of monitoring regardless. Slightly above normal
temperatures will continue with low to medium (20-40%) shower and
thunderstorm chances returning Friday and continuing into early next
week, mainly along the afternoon seabreeze.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    71  92  72  90 /   0  10  10  50
Victoria          68  94  67  92 /   0   0   0  30
Laredo            71  97  71  95 /   0   0   0  10
Alice             68  96  68  93 /   0  10   0  40
Rockport          74  91  74  90 /   0  10  10  50
Cotulla           69  97  70  95 /   0   0   0  10
Kingsville        68  93  69  91 /   0  10   0  50
Navy Corpus       77  88  78  87 /   0  10  10  60
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JCP/84
AVIATION...EMF/94

NWS CRP Office Area Forecast Discussion