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Pencer, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

639
FXUS63 KFGF 240433
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1133 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm temperatures and dry weather are expected to persist through the middle of next week. Patchy fog remains possible each morning this week.

&&

.UPDATE... Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Well be continuing to monitor radiational fog developed overnight/early Wednesday morning, with high resolution guidance favoring an axis from southeast ND and along the MN side of the RRV. This aligns with the location of a weak frontal zone (more apparent at 925 MB). As usual though, actual impacts/coverage will be hard to pin down in a pure radiational event and could would tend to be variable for most areas. For this update I made adjustments to broaden where patchy fog was mentioned and added areas (higher coverage) where the consensus of CAMs were showing lower vis near the frontal zone.

UPDATE Issued at 635 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Fog will be the main impact for the weather period although given radiational fog being the main driver, predictability is low. Other than that quiet weather will persist.

&&

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 110 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

...Synopsis...

Relatively quiet and dry weather prevails today through the middle of next week. An elongated H5 ridge continues to influence the pattern through the forecast period, with a couple of weak trough passages bringing drier air into the area. The first of these troughs brings a northerly to northwesterly wind shift this evening into Wednesday morning. Temperatures are not expected to be impacted significantly, with highs still reaching into the 70s Wednesday afternoon. Thursday looks slightly cooler, with highs in the 60s along the International Border and 70s to near 80 degrees further south. Fog is possible during the early morning period for the next several days as favorable radiative cooling and weak surface winds combine to support fog formation.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1133 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Radiational fog eventually develops over parts of eastern ND and northwest MN after 10Z with fog burning off after 14Z. The best chance for reduced flight conditions to MVFR (localized IFR) would be from southeast ND and along the MN side of the Red River Valley during that period, with KFAR/KTVF having the best chance for IFR impacts based on current guidance. Winds are currently light with very weak surface gradient in place, and eventually there should be a shift to the southwest 7-10kt (mainly in northeast ND) as gradient begins to build to the northwest in responsible to low pressure deepening over Saskatchewan/Manitoba.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Perroux/DJR DISCUSSION...Lynch AVIATION...DJR

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion

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