Pencer, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

639
FXUS63 KFGF 240433
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1133 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm temperatures and dry weather are expected to persist
  through the middle of next week. Patchy fog remains possible
  each morning this week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Well be continuing to monitor radiational fog developed
overnight/early Wednesday morning, with high resolution
guidance favoring an axis from southeast ND and along the MN
side of the RRV. This aligns with the location of a weak frontal
zone (more apparent at 925 MB). As usual though, actual
impacts/coverage will be hard to pin down in a pure radiational
event and could would tend to be variable for most areas. For
this update I made adjustments to broaden where patchy fog was
mentioned and added areas (higher coverage) where the consensus
of CAMs were showing lower vis near the frontal zone.
UPDATE
Issued at 635 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Fog will be the main impact for the weather period although
given radiational fog being the main driver, predictability is
low. Other than that quiet weather will persist.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 110 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...Synopsis...
Relatively quiet and dry weather prevails today through the middle
of next week. An elongated H5 ridge continues to influence the
pattern through the forecast period, with a couple of weak trough
passages bringing drier air into the area. The first of these
troughs brings a northerly to northwesterly wind shift this evening
into Wednesday morning. Temperatures are not expected to be impacted
significantly, with highs still reaching into the 70s Wednesday
afternoon. Thursday looks slightly cooler, with highs in the 60s
along the International Border and 70s to near 80 degrees further
south. Fog is possible during the early morning period for the next
several days as favorable radiative cooling and weak surface winds
combine to support fog formation.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Radiational fog eventually develops over parts of eastern ND and
northwest MN after 10Z with fog burning off after 14Z. The best
chance for reduced flight conditions to MVFR (localized IFR)
would be from southeast ND and along the MN side of the Red
River Valley during that period, with KFAR/KTVF having the best
chance for IFR impacts based on current guidance. Winds are
currently light with very weak surface gradient in place, and
eventually there should be a shift to the southwest 7-10kt
(mainly in northeast ND) as gradient begins to build to the
northwest in responsible to low pressure deepening over
Saskatchewan/Manitoba.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Perroux/DJR
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...DJR

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion