Pencer, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

238
FXUS63 KFGF 291145
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
645 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low over
  the next 7 days.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 641 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
06z model data still indicating late afternoon showers (maybe
thunder) developing along Manitoba border and then expanding
eastward toward Lake of the Woods this evening/overnight.
Considering most all models have it now in that 21z-00z along
the border I think continued mention is reasonable. Moisture is
mid cloud based.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
...Synopsis...
500 mb high center (591 dm) is over northwest Illinois this
early morning and is forecast to remain in that vicinity thru
mid week. 500 mb trough will continue to push east gradually
into Washington state and British Columbia the next few days
with 500 mb heights building gradually northward into Manitoba
and NW Ontario. This puts the forecast area in a south-southwest
flow aloft. It does appear any deeper moisture is cutoff from
the flow aloft from New Mexico to Colorado and then into North
Dakota, except for some areas of mid level moisture and mid
clouds. Models, esp the GFS, for days have indicated at least
some low chance for a few showers (thunder?) in far northern
fcst area this aftn/eve.... NBM kept pops sub 15 but did feel
enough confidence as it is picked up on other models to go a
mentionable pop and a slight chc of showers along the Canadian
border mid afternoon into the evening from Langdon to Roseau.
Coord with BIS. Coord with DLH and added a low pop 05z-12z Tue p
period in Lake of the Woods as this is the favored area for some
mid level showers, maybe a thunderstorm. SPC has general thunder
in our area, but MUCAPES 500 j/kg or so is pretty weak.
At the surface today there is a weak front and cooler air that
will settle over the northern fcst area today, with highs today
in northeast ND and far northwest MN more in the 70s vs 80s we
saw Sunday. But very warm temps south with 850/925 mb temps a
degree or two warmer this aftn in SE ND and west central MN
where upper 80s are likely. For climate stations such as Fargo
these temps are shy of record values (which for Fargo is 96 in
1897). Overall today, will not see as low RH values as we saw
Sunday, with a mainly light east-northeast wind northeast ND and
northwest MN and a southeast wind in SE ND/WC MN. Speeds do look
to be 5-15 mph. Lowest RH progs using a bit lower dew pts than
strict NBM had does show some mid 30s RH values in warmer
airmass in SE ND into MN. Thus at this time no near critical
fire wx conditions will be advertised.
Warmer air will spread back north Tuesday and last into Thursday
with highs in the 80s. This is due to low pressure that will
develop in central Alberta and move into northern Saskatchean
Tuesday. Once again some hints at low precip chances Tues night
or Wed northern areas, where more mid level moisture will be
located.
Friday afternoon into the weekend precipitation chances do
increase tied to a short wave moving east into Saskatchewan and
Montana and potential 500 mb low that may develop over the
central Rockies with a pool of moisture northeast into parts of
eastern ND and MN. Something to watch...at this time precip
amounts and t-storm potential dont look impactful.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 641 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
VFR thru tonight, with predominately ares of high clouds.
Frontal boundary will set up near or just south of Hwy 2 today
making winds and direction at GFK and BJI more uncertain than
usual, but wind speeds under 10 kts. SSE wind Fargo area 8-12 kts
and Devils Lake more northeast to east wind 8-12 kts.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion