Pembroke, Maine Weather Forecast Discussion

080
FXUS61 KCAR 051822
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
222 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves east through Monday. A cold front crosses
the region later Tuesday through Wednesday. High pressure builds
in Thursday and Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A ridge of high pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere will
crest across the region tonight into Monday. At the same time,
surface high will continue to drift east into the open waters
of the western Atlantic. Subsidence associated with the ridge
will result in a mainly clear sky tonight. Some patchy fog is
possible late across downeast areas. Lows tonight will generally
range from the low to mid 50s.
Monday will be a mainly sunny and unseasonably warm day for early
October, as high pressure both at the surface and aloft moves east.
Southwest flow at the surface and aloft will result in record high
temperatures Monday afternoon across the region. Afternoon
highs are expected to reach the lower 80s throughout much of the
region away from the immediate coast.
Monday night will be mainly clear as high pressure continues to
move east in advance of an approaching upper trough and cold
front from Quebec. Lows will range from the low to mid 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Tuesday: The low pressure system and the warm front will remain
well to the north bringing warm S flow to the region. Temps
could reach record highs for the day in the upper 70s to low
80s. With the cold front approaching from the W, pressure
gradients are squeezing between the exiting high and the front.
Thus winds should increase throughout the day, with gusty winds
along the coast. Extended models indicate the rain ahead of the
cold front should move in by late evening. In addition, models
are showing instability ahead of the front, which could produce
isolated thunderstorms across the north.
Tuesday night: The cold front should progress across the
region. As of the this update, QPF models show the majority of
rainfall moving through the region throughout the night. As the
front moves through, temps should drop into the 50s and wind
direction shifts from the NW.
Wednesday: The cold front should gradually exit to the E
throughout the day. The majority of rain is expected in the
south for the day and should dissipate by late afternoon. Temps
should be drastically cooler from Tuesdays high temps with upper
50s in the north and low 60s in the south. Breezy NNW winds
should continue with gradually clearing skies.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure is expected to dominate the region through the
rest of the week into the weekend. Expect mostly clear skies and
near normal temps. Thursday night could see temps dropping into
the upper 20s in the north and low 30s in the south.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected through Monday. Could be some
patchy fog and MVFR conditions KBHB late tonight. SW wind 5 to
10 kt tonight and then 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt at
times in the afternoon.
Monday Night Outlook...Mainly VFR with possible IFR late
KBGR/KBHB. S to SW wind.
SHORT TERM: Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Possible MVFR in rain north.
SSW winds 5-15 kts
Tuesday night...MVFR/IFR in rain. SW winds becoming NW winds
5-10 kts.
Wednesday...VFR north. MVFR/IFR south in rain. NW winds 10-15
kts with gusts up to 25 kts.
Wed night-Fri...VFR. NW winds 5-15 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below SCA levels through
Monday night.
SHORT TERM: A SCA will likely be needed Tuesday into Tuesday
night for SW winds gusting over 25 kt. Seas will build to 4 to 5
ft Tuesday and 5 to 6 ft Tuesday night in response to the
southwesterly wind. Humid air over the cooler water may result
in some mist and fog into early Wednesday morning. Good vsby
should return Wednesday afternoon through the end of the week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry tonight through Monday with record warmth possible. A
wetting rain is expected later Tuesday into Wednesday, with
rainfall totals of up to an inch is possible. South/southwest
wind gusts up to around 20 mph are expected Monday/Tuesday
afternoons. Wednesday afternoon into Thursday should see a
return of dry and much cooler conditions with gusty northerly
winds.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures for Monday October 6th:
Location.....Record High/Year...Forecast High
Caribou               74/1946        81
Bangor                84/1946        83
Millinocket           82/1946        83
Houlton               73/1957        82
Record High Temperatures for Tuesday October 7th:
Location.....Record High/Year...Forecast High
Caribou               76/2016        78
Bangor                84/1946        78
Millinocket           81/1946        79
Houlton               76/2016        78
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...TWD
Short Term...LaFlash
Long Term...LaFlash
Aviation...TWD/LaFlash
Marine...TWD/LaFlash
Fire Weather...
Climate...

NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion