Pellston, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

413
FXUS63 KAPX 260533
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord
Issued by National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
132 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated showers linger through Friday, mainly across
  northeast Lower.
- Prolonged stretch of warm and dry weather this weekend and
  into next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
The sluggish upper-level low over the Great Lakes continues its
slow march eastward, with lingering cyclonic flow and pockets
of moisture still hanging across northern Michigan this
afternoon and into Friday. A few lingering diurnally driven
showers will continue to pop up through late afternoon,
especially across parts of northeast Lower. Much of the rest of
the area will remain dry, though clouds will be slow to scour in
some spots. As we head into tonight, shower chances diminish
quickly with loss of heating. Some patchy fog may again develop
under light winds and partial clearing, though coverage is not
expected to be widespread given drier air gradually working in.
Overnight lows dip into the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Friday will feature a mix of sun and clouds as the upper-level
low finally pulls farther east. A weak shortwave may still be
enough to trigger a stray shower, mainly across northeast Lower.
Otherwise, a dry day for most with highs back into the upper
60s north to upper 70s south.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
The main story through much of the extended remains the
building ridge and stretch of dry weather. After Friday night,
guidance supports a prolonged period of quiet conditions with
temperatures trending above normal. Highs are expected to run in
the 70s through the weekend, with some locations flirting with
80 Saturday through Monday. Ensemble guidance favors ridging
holding firm into early next week, though we`ll be under a
somewhat fast west-to-east flow aloft-- meaning can`t rule out a
weak shortwave sneaking through at some point sparking light
showers but overall confidence leans strongly toward a warm and
dry forecast. A potential back door front mid to late next week
could bring some subtle pattern shifts-- cooler easterly flow
across parts of northern Michigan and perhaps an uptick in cloud
cover. Still, even that, precipitation chances remain quite
low.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 132 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
A cold front over the central and western UP will progress into
northern Lower Mi during the course of the day, aided by enhanced
mid level west-northwest flow. The frontal boundary is forecast to
weaken/wash out as it heads toward southern Lower Mi Fri evening.
Ample low level moisture along and in advance of the associated
frontal convergence and the development of a shallow post frontal
low level inversion will support areas of MVFR based clouds with
some IFR. Diurnal mixing during the afternoon and dry air nudging in
from upper Michigan will result in gradually lifting cloud bases
with partial to full clearing Fri evening.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...SC

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion