Pear Ridge, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

171
FXUS64 KLCH 020528
AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1228 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A slight increase in moisture to go along with a developing
  upper level disturbance will bring a periodic low end chances
  for rain today into this weekend.
- Moisture increases further by Sunday as the upper level
  disturbance moves overhead, allowing rain chances to ramp up
  a bit Sunday into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Surface analysis shows broad high pressure over much of the eastern
CONUS, providing a light a variable flow as well as mostly clear
skies across the forecast area tonight. Aloft, ridging also
dominates much of the CONUS, while a weakness is noted over the
northern Gulf. This upper level weakness should gradually expand
and strengthen through the short term period, eventually becoming
a more significant feature by the weekend. As it does so, it will
allow for moisture to steadily increase overhead (especially
south of I-10 into the coastal waters) today through the weekend.
As moisture begins to increase today, expect isolated to
scattered daytime heating driven convection to develop this
afternoon. Otherwise, expect another hot early Oct day with highs
topping out near 90. Tomorrow and Sat, surface high pressure
strengthening over the east CONUS will largely hinger convection
inland, with the best rain chances setting up along/south of I-10
and through the offshore waters, with near zero rain chances
elsewhere.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
By Sunday, moisture begins to increase further from the
southeast, with PWATs surging above the 90th percentile by the
later part of the day. At the same time, a weakness aloft will be
directly overhead providing support for convection throughout Sun
into Sun night. Sun night into Mon, the upper level weakness
becomes absorbed into a larger trough to the NW, allowing ridging
to gradually develop overhead through the work week. Even as
ridging develops aloft moisture overhead remains elevated,
generally between the 75th and 90th percentile. This will keep a
daily chance for at least scattered convection in the forecast
through the end of the forecast period. Temperature wise, highs
will run in the mid 80s to low 90s through the week (near to
slightly above normal) while lows range from the upper 60s to low
70s (above normal).
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Dry air in the region will keep VFR conditions in the forecast
through the period. Expect east winds to prevail during daytime
hours with some variability due to land/sea breeze interactions and
daytime mixing within dry airmass. Conditions will improve after
sundown.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Modest mainly easterly flow and lower seas will remain through
today. Hereafter, ridging from the Mid-Atlantic area will build
toward the Gulf Coast, allowing winds and seas to steadily
strengthen. Winds/seas will build through Friday and remain elevated
through the weekend, and a small craft advisory will likely be
required. In addition, shower activity will increase tomorrow into
the weekend with an upper level disturbance developing over the
northern Gulf.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Surface winds will remain light to moderate out of the ENE today and
Friday with occasional higher gusts. Moisture will remain near
normal through the end of the week, before increasing significantly
over the weekend. Some isolated to scattered convection will be
possibly today through Sat. A disturbance offshore along with the
significant increase in moisture will allow for scattered to
numerous showers and storms by Sunday into early next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  90  64  88  62 /  10   0   0   0
LCH  90  69  88  67 /  30  10  20   0
LFT  89  69  87  67 /  30  10  20   0
BPT  90  70  88  68 /  20  20  20  10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11

NWS LCH Office Area Forecast Discussion