418 FXUS63 KSGF 132307 AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 607 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions continue, with low 15-25% chances for afternoon pop-up showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.

- Next system brings greater 30-50% chances of rain during the middle of next week. This system could mark a pattern change with cooler, more seasonable temperatures following its passage.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

Current water vapor imagery shows a very steep meridional wave pattern in place with a strong, steep, and moisture-laden trough across the west CONUS, and a weaker, but still steep trough over the east CONUS. This leaves steep ridging across the central CONUS, with the axis running right through southwest MO. At the surface, a low pressure system--associated with the trough over the west CONUS--is situated over SD, with a cold front and dryline extending south, and a weak warm/stationary front extending ESE through IA/IL. This has allowed southerly flow across our area, bringing in warm temperatures and marginal moisture.

Above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions continue:

The warm temperatures south of the warm front are also aided by compressional warming from sinking air beneath upper- level ridging and mid-level high pressure. This has allowed temperatures to be well above normal the past few days, today, and onward. High temperatures in the middle 90s are once again expected today within this pattern, with warm lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. While these are not quite record-breaking temperatures, they are very close and certainly well above the 90th percentile for this time of year. For context, the Extreme Forecast Index has 80-95% of model members showing a higher temperature than normal climate reforecasts for early September.

15-25% chance of a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon:

The past few days, warm temperatures within the mid-level high pressure and drier near-surface air has kept conditions capped for shower and thunderstorm development. Today, easterly 700 mb flow is progged to advect in slightly cooler mid-level temperatures. At the same time, the southerly flow has slowly increased near-surface moisture (past few days have been upper 50s dewpoints, today is mid-60s). These factors should then influence a weaker cap and allow for diurnal pop-up showers and thunderstorms, especially along and east of Hwy 65 where temperatures aloft are cooler. The further east you go, the cooler the mid-level temperatures and the drier the air at the surface is. Therefore, there seems to be a sweet spot of better moisture and cooler temperatures aloft, supportive of a better chance of showers and thunderstorms today (15-25%). This would be along the Highway 65 corridor and just east where currently a cumulus field has developed, with signs of agitation between Springfield and Branson, and eastward to Mountain Grove. It`s this area that isolated to scattered pop-up showers and thunderstorms are possible between 3 and 7 PM, before nighttime stability dissipates any activity.

Hazards: Severe weather is not anticipated, though lightning will be a hazard. The coverage of lightning-producing storms is still in question based on how mixed we get this afternoon. HREF members are bimodal with a cluster showing upper 50s afternoon dewpoints, and another cluster showing lower to mid-60s dewpoints. The lower dewpoints would lead to lower CAPE with more skinny profiles which may inhibit vertical growth of showers, stunting lightning potential. The higher dewpoints would lead to greater CAPE with more appreciable profiles supportive of a greater coverage of thunderstorms. Currently, dewpoints at Springfield are around 62-63 F, which is greater than previous days, so hedging bets toward the greater moisture scenario, bringing a lightning hazard to any areas that see showers today.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

Above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions continue:

Global models prog the current pattern to be quite static through this weekend and early next week as the two troughs churn away in their respective locations. This leaves upper- level deformation and mid-level high pressure to remain over our area for the entire period. As previously mentioned, the static nature of the pattern is leading to very high confidence in temperatures with NBM spreads at less than 2-5 degrees. Therefore, highs are expected to continue to be in the lower to mid-90s through Tuesday, with lows in the middle to upper 60s.

15-25% chances of pop-up storms each afternoon through Wednesday:

Once again, since the pattern will be static, lingering moisture and instability along and southwest of the NW-SE oriented warm/stationary front along the Mississippi River Valley brings a low 15-25% chance for daily afternoon pop-up showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday. The best chances are along and east of Highway 65 where better instability and surface convergence is forecast to be. No severe weather is expected with these chances.

Greater 30-50% rain chances Wednesday night into Thursday:

The western trough is then forecast to finally make its way across the central Plains during the middle of next week. Cluster analysis still shows some uncertainty in shape, intensity, and timing, but the grand ensemble mean points to the traversal occuring sometime between Wednesday night and Thursday night. The greater forcing would bring a better chance for more widespread rain and thunderstorms. Currently, due to the uncertainty, there is a 30-50% chance across our area. As of now, QPF clusters are not overly excited about any sort of "washouts", with the vast majority of models keeping amounts well below an inch through next week.

More seasonable temperatures filter in following the next system:

As lower heights enter the region following the system, NBM mean temperatures also decrease to near normal. Though there is still quite a bit of spread as we get past the next system (for example, we could see highs as low as the upper 70s or as high as the upper 80s), the overall trend is a decrease, pointing to the potential *real* arrival of fall in the near future.

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 606 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

For the 00z TAFS, a few showers are near the BBG site as of 23z and may linger to around 01z. Not expecting any additional convection at JLN or SGF. VFR conditions are expected outside of any convection near BBG with a light southwest to south wind.

.CLIMATE... Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025

Values listed below are for sites where the forecast is within 5 degrees of a record.

Record High Temperatures:

September 13: KSGF: 99/2011 KVIH: 96/1956 KUNO: 96/1980

September 14: KVIH: 99/1971

September 15: KSGF: 98/1893 KUNO: 98/1954

September 16: KSGF: 95/2019 KVIH: 96/1954

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

September 15: KSGF: 74/1936

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None.

SHORT TERM...Price LONG TERM...Price AVIATION...Lindenberg CLIMATE...Nelson

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion