Parker City, Indiana Weather Forecast Discussion

014
FXUS63 KIND 170933
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
533 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and very warm to hot conditions will persist for the rest of
  the work week
- Drying fuels and low RH values each afternoon through Friday may
  lead to elevated fire threat, but light winds should limit overall
  concerns
- Next chance of rain and slightly cooler temperatures arrives
  for the second half of the weekend into the first half of next week
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Wednesday and Wednesday Night...
Despite being crowded by not only quasi-stationary upper troughs to
its west and east, but also a northern trough passing James Bay...
the recent subtropical blocking upper ridge will nevertheless
maintain itself through the mid-week...aligned from the Middle
Mississippi Valley, through most of Indiana and into the southern
Great Lakes. Very modest surface gradient courtesy of broad yet weak
high pressure aligned from Michigan to Maine...will continue to
allow only light breezes that will generally be from some easterly
direction.
Temperatures will again climb to above normal levels today, as the
the upper ridge`s 570+ dm 1000-500 mb thickness envelops the region.
Further aided by dewpoints in only the 50s, widespread upper 80s are
expected this afternoon...with areas in the low 90s amid the lowest
elevations along the Wabash and East Fork White Rivers.  Following
several very warm days with only lighter winds...the Air Quality
Alert for higher levels of ozone has expanded north today, to now
include all of the region excepting northwest and west-central zones.
An enhanced fire risk is the short term`s other, more marginal
concern...following mainly rain-free conditions for nearly the last
two weeks that has allowed fuels to dry.  Minimum relative humidity
values this afternoon in mainly the 25-35 percent range will be
nearing critical thresholds...although wind gusts struggling to
exceed 10 mph will be a strong mitigating factor.  Fire weather
concerns have been additionally mitigated over several counties by
moderate to heavy rainfall this past weekend...both from the
Lafayette to Crawfordsville area, and also from the eastern
Indianapolis Metro down through the Columbus and Seymour areas.
Tonight will exhibit another noteworthy diurnal drop, from dewpoints
(perhaps falling) in the 50s under only a few higher clouds.
Readings should fall at least 30 degrees from afternoon maxs over
most locations, with widespread mid to upper 50s by dawn Thursday...
except inside I-465 and the Vincennes area where low 60s are more
likely.
&&
.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
The persistent omega blocking pattern aloft will persist through the
end of the week before gradually breaking down this weekend into the
first half of next week in response to an approaching upper trough
from the northwest. Hot and dry weather will continue through Friday
with temperatures slowly cooling into early next week with the
weakening of the ridging aloft. This will also introduce at least
low chances for isolated to scattered convection focused primarily
from the second half of the weekend into early next week.
Model guidance continues to trend slower with the demise of the
omega block aloft resulting in low confidence with respect to
overall precipitation chances for late Saturday into Sunday...but at
least low precip chances are warranted. As the block erodes a series
of upper level lows will eventually push eastward into early next
week with a subtly increasing threat for scattered showers and storms.
Moisture return remains the underlying problem for greater rainfall
coverage aided by a strong surface ridge to our east and abnormally
dry or moderate drought antecedent conditions over the Ohio Valley.
Model soundings support slowly increasing moisture advection into
the boundary layer early next week in advance of a cold front that
is likely to provide the best potential for rain across the forecast
area over the next 10 to 14 days.
In the wake of the frontal passage by mid week...cooler air will
briefly expand into the Ohio Valley as an upper low passes tracks
from near James Bay into New England. There remains uncertainty
within the extended model suite as to the extent of the upper level
system which will have an impact on the length of time the cooler
airmass lingers over the region. That being said...broad upper level
ridging will return to the region beyond the 7 day period with a
resumption of warm and dry conditions with growing confidence in
that pattern persisting through the end of the month.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 533 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Impacts:
- None
Discussion:
VFR conditions are expected to continue across the region through
Thursday morning.
Ridging at the surface and aloft will continue over the Ohio Valley
through the forecast period. The western fringes of thin cirrus
associated with the upper low over the Mid Atlantic may drift into
the region otherwise expect a few diurnal cu for this afternoon.
Light E/SE winds are expected today before once again going near
calm tonight. May see brief patchy fog develop late tonight at KBMG
but confidence is too low to mention in the forecast at this time.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AGM
LONG TERM...Ryan
AVIATION...Ryan

NWS IND Office Area Forecast Discussion