Panther Burn, Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

871
FXUS64 KJAN 251706
AFDJAN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1206 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...New DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and a few thunderstorms remain possible into this
   evening for parts of the forecast area, but no severe
   thunderstorms are expected.
- Dry weather is anticipated this weekend in the wake of the
   departing system.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
The upper-level weather pattern to end this work week will feature a
closed low pressure system cutting off near the Baja Peninsula, a
low closing off from a positively tilted trough over the Southeast
U.S., and shortwave ridging over the central CONUS between these
features. The trough axis currently over our region should translate
east by Saturday. Until then, northerly flow will keep scattered
clouds around the CWA and the chance for at least some sprinkles or
showers for parts of the CWA. Trending drier by tomorrow afternoon
though.
The pattern at least gets a little more interesting into the middle
of next week, though. The Southwest low will become absorbed in a
deepening trough off the West Coast, and the central CONUS ridge
will amplify in response. Models generally agree that the
Southeastern U.S. low will cut off and spin over the southern
Appalachians. A tropical disturbance with a High (90%) chance of
development in the next few days will be steered northwest toward
this broad low pressure system  by early to mid next week. Any
impacts won`t be felt across our forecast area, but the pattern
should lock in the low pressure to our east through the end of this
7-day forecast. It appears more likely that we will be under the
influence of drier flow, but some wrap around moisture producing
rain by Wednesday or Thursday cannot entirely be ruled out. Pattern
will generally keep temps near normal late September and early
October. /NF/
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
A cold front will continue moving through the region this morning
and bring a wind shift out of the w-nw. Additional chances for
-SHRA/-TSRA remain low but IFR/LIFR conditions wl prevail until
after 14Z and then gradually improve to VFR by 19Z. After 19Z
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the end of the TAF
period at most TAF sites. The exception will be in east and
northeast MS where MVFR cigs may develop 10-12Z. /22/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       64  84  60  85 /  10  10   0   0
Meridian      64  84  60  87 /  10  10   0   0
Vicksburg     64  84  61  86 /  10   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   67  87  64  89 /  20  10   0   0
Natchez       64  84  60  86 /  10   0   0   0
Greenville    62  83  57  84 /  10   0   0   0
Greenwood     62  84  57  85 /  10  10   0   0
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
06/22

NWS JAN Office Area Forecast Discussion