Panacea, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

329
FXUS62 KTAE 201404
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1004 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1001 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Made some adjustments to lower the dew points and increase the
temperatures for this afternoon as a plume of drier air is over
much of the area, as indicated by the satellite derived PWATs
hovering around 1.1-1.2". Otherwise, the forecast is on track with
highs in the middle to upper 90s and only a very isolated
shower/storm along the seabreeze anticipated later today.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 134 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Similar to Friday, some isolated shower and thunderstorm activity is
possible along the seabreeze zone this afternoon, mainly across the
Florida big bend. The key word is isolated. Any rain will be brief,
and most areas will remain dry due to mid-level dry air and the lack
of a significant forcing mechanism. Afternoon highs will generally
be in the low to mid 90s with overnight lows ranging from the mid
60s to around 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 134 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Most of the area on Sunday will continue with dry weather as a
slightly drier airmass moves in from the northeast with lower
precipitable water values and lower dewpoints. However, the
exception may be across portions of the Florida panhandle and far
western portions of the area where slightly higher moisture may
still allow for isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High
temperatures will remain warm in the low to mid 90s with overnight
lows in the mid 60s to around 70. Little overall change is expected
for Monday, although a slight uptick on moisture across the
southeast big bend could result in some isolated convection in that
area.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 134 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Eventually, a stronger upper level trough could begin to affect the
area by the end of the week. However, at that range, confidence
remains low with differing scenarios possible. If the trough is
progressive, then rainfall amounts would probably remain fairly
light. If the trough is slower or cuts off, then we would see a
better chance of a more widespread, beneficial rain. In the
meantime, high temperatures through Wednesday are expected to be
generally in the low to mid 90s with overnight lows ranging from the
mid 60s to low 70s. A slight decrease in high temperatures is
expected for the end of the week with the approach of the upper
level trough bringing increased cloud cover and maybe some rain.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Patchy fog is possible around sunrise, mostly at VLD and possibly
at ABY, but aside from that VFR conditions with light winds will
prevail through the TAF period. Some showers are possible, along
the seabreeze in Florida 18-00z but confidence is too low to
warrant mention in the TAFs for now.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 134 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Mainly light winds and low seas are expected for the next several
days during the afternoon hours with onshore flow along the coast in
association with the seabreeze. Further offshore, winds will
becoming easterly into early next week with high pressure over the
Appalachians. By the end of the week, a weak cold front is expected
to approach, resulting in winds becoming more out of the southwest.
Seas will generally remain at 1 to 2 feet through the period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 134 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Other than some isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
along the seabreeze zone across the Florida panhandle and big bend,
warm and dry conditions will persist. There are continued elevated
fire concerns from drying vegetative fuels despite min RH remaining
above critical thresholds. High afternoon dispersions are also in
the forecast for parts of the Tri-State area. East to NE winds are
prevail with a shift out of the SW thanks to a daily seabreeze near
the coast.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 134 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
There are no widespread rain chances in the forecast through the
middle of next week. For late next week, rainfall totals with the
next system have low confidence thanks to the uncertainty with the
upper-level trough and cut-off low potential. If the trough is
farther north and more progressive, then rainfall totals will be on
the lighter side. However, if the trough cuts off to our west, then
a more beneficial rainfall may occur.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   95  69  92  69 /  20   0   0   0
Panama City   92  73  90  72 /  10   0  20   0
Dothan        95  68  92  67 /  10   0  10   0
Albany        95  68  92  66 /  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      93  66  91  67 /  10   0   0   0
Cross City    94  67  92  69 /  20  10   0   0
Apalachicola  88  73  86  74 /  20   0   0   0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD

NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion