Palito Blanco, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

209
FXUS64 KCRP 240553 AAA
AFDCRP
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1253 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1252 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
- Muggy and warm conditions today with heat indices ranging from
105- 115F.
- Marginal Risk for Severe Weather (Level 1 of 5, primarily gusty
   winds) and for Excessive Rainfall (Level 1 of 4) today.
- Additional round of rainfall early Thursday morning which will
spread area-wide by mid-morning.
- 1-2" rainfall amounts through Thursday night as the most
  reasonable range, with high end amounts nearing 4".
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Before we talk about the rainfall chances, today is the last day
in the forecast period in which a HeatRisk of mostly Moderate
(level 2 of 4) with the risk maxing out as Major (level 3 of 4)
across the Brush Country. This will be limited to any areas that
can avoid shower/storm passages before max heating.
A 500 hPa trough axis extends from the Four Corners towards the
Great Lakes and with this forecast, continuing to move to the
southeast. Translating this to the surface, a "cold front" is also
forecast to move through the region over the course of the next 48
hrs. Frontal passages this early in the Fall are primarily
noticeable when it comes to the dewpoint temperature versus ambient
air temperature. That said, having the surface convergence of an
approaching surface frontal passage (along with any prefrontal
boundaries such as outflows preceding the main frontal passage early
Thursday morning) , supported by the forecast of increased PVA
thanks to the deepening trough aloft. Honing in more specifically to
the severe weather threat this afternoon and into tonight, the 00Z
CAMs continue to show storms initiating over central and north
Texas, providing an boundary on which South Texas convective storms
will form along. With forecast CAPE expected to range from 2500-3000
J/kg and DCAPE along the imediate coastline exceeding 1000 J/kg, the
greatest severe weather threat for this afternoon/evening will be
gusty outflow winds. This threat will be limited to the loss of
daytime heating, but could continue producing tricky sailing
conditions as the outflows move offshore and into the coastal marine
zones. As such, the SPC continues to place South Texas in a Marginal
risk for severe weather (level 1 of 5).
The actual frontal passage will be tricky to time, and especially
where it gets stalled out. Ahead of this, forecast PWATs will near
the 99th climatological percentile. Aloft, another patch of PVA will
round out the base of the trough axis that will continue to deepen
across the region heading into Thursday morning. This is what`ll
drive the next round of preciitation, this time initiating in Hill
Country before moving slowly to the southeast, approaching the
Coastal Plains by sunrise Thursday morning. This round may bring the
majority of the rain to the Brush Country as opposed to the rain
from tonight. CAMS are still wanting the front to sort of lose steam
somewhere in the CWA. That said, having this convergence in the
region will only allow for more efficient rainfall as they form.
Most reasonable forecast rainfall amounts through Thursday night
still generally range from 1-2 inches, with reasonable high end
amounts (1 in 10 chance of exceeding this) is closer to 4 inches. No
longer fuse headlines are necessary, but as the latest CAMs come in
this morning/afternoon, we`ll have a better idea to guide any short-
fused products that may be warranted. WPC still places the region
under a Marginal riks for Excessive Rainfall (level 1 of 4).
By Thursday evening, the upper levels begin drying out first before
the stubborn surface follows suit. This will effectively end the
rain threat. Though Thursday`s highs will generally struggle to
break the 90s, this is primarily driven by PoPs. By as we head into
the weekend, our highs will generally top out in the low to mid 90s
with overnight lows dip into the mid 60s to low 70s, with upper 70s
along the immediate coast. We then shift into an upper-level ridging
pattern through the end of the forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Brief MVFR conditions will be possible between 09-14Z Wednesday
morning due to low cloud bases and patchy fog. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail through late Wednesday morning. The chance
of showers and thunderstorms will increase throughout the day across
S TX. Initially expecting showers moving northward across VCT, CRP
and ALI late morning into early afternoon. A cold front is expected
to approach S TX through late Wednesday afternoon which will
increase the chance of TSRAs from COT to VCT. As the cold front
moves south into S TX Wednesday evening, the chance for TSRAs will
continue to increase up to 70-85% after midnight area-wide. The cold
front is forecast to reach the coastline between 08-12Z Thursday
morning. Some storms may become strong to severe along with heavy
rainfall.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) south to southeasterly flow will
continue through tonight before shifting to the north/northeast
briefly on Thursday as a cold front moves across the waters before
returning to onshore flow Thursday night or Friday, depending on
a reinforcing surge of high pressure temporarily shifting winds
northeast to east. Medium chances for showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday will increase to high chances Wednesday night through
Thursday. Rain chances decrease to low Friday and will persist
through this weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    95  75  87  72 /  30  70  80  20
Victoria          96  71  88  66 /  70  80  60  10
Laredo           101  74  90  72 /  20  70  80  20
Alice             99  74  90  69 /  30  70  80  20
Rockport          92  74  88  73 /  40  80  80  20
Cotulla          100  74  90  71 /  30  80  60  10
Kingsville        96  74  88  69 /  30  60  90  20
Navy Corpus       90  77  85  76 /  30  80  90  30
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AE/82
AVIATION...TE/81

NWS CRP Office Area Forecast Discussion