Pahokee, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

365
FXUS62 KMFL 101643
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1243 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 129 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Mid to upper level troughing will remain in place across most
locations east of the Mississippi River through today and
Thursday. Heading into Thursday, however, a potent mid level
shortwave will amplify the troughing as it pushes southeastward
through the Midwest and towards the Mid Atlantic and Southeast
coastline. At the surface, a frontal boundary will remain parked
over Central Florida today, however, as the mid level trough
amplifies on Thursday, this will start to give this front some
slow movement southeastward as the day progresses. Throughout
today and Thursday, South Florida will still remain on the
southern side of this frontal boundary, and this will be one of
the key synoptic features in our sensible weather during this time
frame. In general, a light south to southwesterly wind flow will
continue across the region today, however, as the front pushes
further south on Thursday, winds will be even lighter and become
more variable throughout the day. As moisture continues to advect
and pool over the area out ahead of the front, PWAT values will
remain anomalously high for this time of year as the latest
forecast model soundings show PWAT values hovering between 2.1 and
2.4 inches across South Florida today and Thursday.
As the atmosphere destabilizes with diurnal heating, the sea breezes
will try to develop and push inland. With plenty of deep layer
moisture available, numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop
once again across the region this afternoon. Showers and storms
will have the potential to produce very heavy downpours with high
rainfall rates ranging between 2 to 4 inches per hour in the
strongest activity. The rather light steering flow aloft will also
keep the storm motion rather slow. This combined with the
possibility of convective training will keep the potential for
localized flash and urban flooding in place each afternoon and
evening through Thursday. The highest chances for additional
flooding will reside over the east coast metro areas where the sea
breeze will remain pinned due to the general south to
southwesterly steering flow. Because of this, WPC has maintained
the slight risk of excessive rainfall (Level 2 of 4) over most of
the east coast metro areas and a marginal risk of excessive
rainfall over the rest of South Florida (Level 1 of 4) for today
and Thursday.
Rainfall amounts will be highly variable depending on where the
heaviest rainfall sets up, however, the most likely scenario will be
a general 1 to 2 inches each afternoon and evening across most of
the region. Localized amounts of 3 to 4+ inches will be possible
where convective training takes place. This would be a worst case
scenario or a 1 in 10 chance in these amounts materializing and
would be highly localized. High temperatures today and Thursday
will generally rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s across most
of South Florida.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 129 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Mid level troughing will continue to amplify over the Eastern
Seaboard for the end of the week which in turn will push the frontal
boundary over South Florida as Friday progresses. As the surface
frontal boundary slowly pushes southward, winds will shift and
become northerly across the region. With the frontal boundary over
the region, deep layer moisture will remain in place through the end
of the week as the latest guidances continues to show PWAT values
remaining between 2.1 and 2.3 inches across most of the area. This
will result in another wet and unsettled day on Friday with numerous
showers and thunderstorms developing mainly during the afternoon
and evening hours. Efficient rainfall rates will continue during
this time frame and the storm motion will still remain rather
slow. This will keep the potential for localized flooding concerns
in place especially for the east coast metro areas where grounds
remain saturated from previous heavy rainfall. High temperatures
on Friday will be slightly cooler across the Lake Okeechobee
region behind the front as they will rise into the mid 80s.
Farther to the south, high temperatures will rise into the upper
80s to around 90.
The uncertainty in the forecast rises heading into the upcoming
weekend as the latest guidance suite still remains somewhat in
disagreement with the evolution of the mid level trough as it
amplifies over the Eastern Seaboard during this time frame. While
the models are in pretty good agreement with amplifying the
trough into a trough/closed low complex, they differ in regards to
the timing of the evolution of this feature. The ECMWF guidance
suite shows a much faster amplification and closed low development
over the weekend while the GFS guidance suite show a slower
development of a closed low heading into early next week. This mid
level feature will play an important role in how fast the frontal
boundary over South Florida pushes to the south of the region.
The stronger and faster trough/low complex solutions such as the
ECMWF guidance suite suggests would push the front south of the
region faster and allow for some drier air to work in from the
north over the weekend finally reducing the chances of showers and
thunderstorms. The GFS guidance suite would keep the front over
the area a bit longer into the first part of the weekend before
pushing it south of the region. The latest forecast does take a
blend of the forecast models and gradually lowers the chances of
showers and storms as the weekend progresses, with higher chances
especially across southern areas on Saturday.
For the early portion of next week, the strengthening mid level low
will be located off to the north northeast over the Carolinas and
Mid Atlantic states. This in turn will keep a drier west to
northwesterly mid level wind flow in place while the surface wind
flow become more northeasterly. While there will still be enough
moisture in place to support the chances of convective development
along the sea breezes as they push inland each afternoon, chances
will be much lower compared to what they have been recently due
to drier air working into the vertical column.
High temperatures heading into the weekend and early next week
should remain near climatological normals for this time of year
remaining in the upper 80s to around 90 across most areas Saturday
through Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Scattered thunderstorms are developing and will continue to
develop this afternoon into early evening. This may result in
brief flight restrictions and erratic winds periodically through
the day. Light and variable flow overnight, remaining fairly
light through the first half of the day on Thursday. By mid
afternoon, light south- southwest flow should prevail Thursday as
additional showers and storms develop around 18Z.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 129 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
A gentle to occasionally moderate south to southwesterly wind
flow will continue across most of the local waters today before
gradually becoming rather light and variable on Thursday. Winds
will gradually shift and become more northerly across all local
waters for the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Seas
will range from 3 to 6 feet across the Atlantic waters today as a
northeasterly swell develops. These seas will gradually diminish
heading into the second half of the week. Seas across the Gulf
waters will remain at 2 feet or less through the end of the week.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible
each day across the local waters through the end of the week.
Periods of rough seas along with gusty and erratic winds will be
possible near the stronger thunderstorms.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 129 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
A high risk of rip currents will develop today across the Palm
Beaches as a northeasterly swell develops across the Atlantic
waters. A moderate risk of rip currents will develop across the
Broward and Miami Dade County beaches today.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            77  91  77  89 /  30  80  40  80
West Kendall     76  91  75  89 /  30  70  30  80
Opa-Locka        77  92  77  90 /  30  80  40  80
Homestead        76  90  76  89 /  30  70  30  70
Fort Lauderdale  76  90  77  89 /  40  80  40  80
N Ft Lauderdale  77  91  78  89 /  40  80  40  80
Pembroke Pines   77  93  77  91 /  40  80  40  80
West Palm Beach  76  90  76  88 /  50  80  50  70
Boca Raton       76  92  76  90 /  40  80  50  80
Naples           77  90  76  89 /  40  70  30  70
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for FLZ168.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...Rizzuto

NWS MFL Office Area Forecast Discussion