Oxbow, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

439
FXUS63 KFGF 271156
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
656 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Near critical fire weather across northwest and west central
  Minnesota Saturday afternoon and early evening.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 656 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
It remains quiet across the region with satellite revealing not
a single cloud in our FA. The forecast remains on track.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
...Synopsis...
The main upper level jet remains to our north in Canada,
leading to benign weather across the region early this Saturday
morning. Outside of upper level smoke from western US wildfires
Saturday night that will linger into early Sunday, clear skies
and above average temperatures will prevail through the weekend.
Progressing into the workweek, large scale ridging will keep
temperatures above average. Gusty southerly winds will increase
mid to late week as surface high pressure to the east and
developing low pressure to our west work to tighten the pressure
gradient. One positive of these gustier winds is that low level
moisture will be advecting back into the region, which should
help to somewhat reduce fire weather concerns mid to late week.
The overall upper level flow becomes much more amplified very
late in the forecast period, setting the stage for a more active
pattern precipitation wise starting sometime next weekend.
However predictability is low at this time, with a spattering of
20 to 30 PoPs starting on Friday lasting through the weekend.
...Fire Weather Today...
RH values look to fall into the 20 to 30 percent range across
most if not all of the FA this afternoon. However, a meandering
surface high across SD into MN should aid in keeping winds on
the lighter side, especially in the south, with a few gusts to
25 mph or so along and north of Highway 200. Fuels as shown by
HRB are still green, but should dry quickly over the next
several days due to the warm forecasted weather. Therefore,
issued an SPS in coordination with WFO DLH to raise awareness
that fire weather today, while borderline, are still worthy of
exercising caution if you are out and about.
Fire weather concerns will likely persist through about midweek,
but no one afternoon seems to stand out as a potential red flag
day. With drying but still green fuels, winds not really
arriving until midweek, but then RH recovering, the probability
for critical fire weather seems low at this point in time.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 615 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Very few changes were made to the previous set of TAFs, with VFR
prevailing throughout the TAF period. Winds will be under 10
knots at KFAR, but slightly stronger at the northern terminals
where gusts up to 18 knots will occur during the afternoon for a
few hours. Any gusts will die off quickly as the sun sets this
evening, with sustained winds once again dropping to under 10
knots at all terminals.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Rafferty
DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...Rafferty

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion