Ovilla, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

549
FXUS64 KFWD 221750
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1250 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Additional isolated thunderstorms will be possible this
  afternoon mainly west of I-35.
- A cold front will move into North Texas Tuesday evening with
  increasing storm chances. Some storms could be severe with
  damaging winds and hail.
- Near normal temperatures will return Wednesday through
  Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Afternoon through Tonight/
The remnants of morning convection continues to decrease in
coverage and intensity as modest warm advection wanes across the
region. Scattered showers will continue for another hour or so
mainly across our northeast counties before the best low level
moisture convergence shifts eastward. This should result in a
quiet but warm afternoon across North Texas with visible satellite
imagery relatively unimpressive at this time.
Our main concern through the rest of the afternoon will be some
low potential for isolated thunderstorms west of I-35 where a
dryline nudges toward our far western counties. While large scale
forcing for ascent will be negligible, modest low level moisture
convergence along the boundary could allow for a few storms to
develop within an uncapped deeply mixed boundary layer. This
threat is conditional and will be handled with 10% PoPs, however,
any storms that develop would be accompanied by a localized wind
threat and perhaps some severe hail.
We`ll also be watching additional convection across parts of
Oklahoma later this afternoon and tonight as this activity should
move east-southeast. Mid and upper level steering flow is a little
more westerly tonight as opposed to northwest which should keep
the bulk of any convection north of the Red River overnight.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Tuesday through Saturday/
Attention then quickly turns to an amplifying central CONUS trough
and associated shortwave that will dig across the Rockies during
the day Tuesday. This will effectively send a cold front southward
into the region late Tuesday evening. Ahead of the front`s
arrival, an area of low pressure will deepen across southwest
Oklahoma while strong surface heating results in an increasingly
unstable atmosphere across North Texas, particularly north of
I-20. Increasing low level moisture convergence into this surface
low and along the approaching boundary along with an increase in
mid and upper level winds should result in scattered deep
convection developing by late afternoon and early evening across
our north and northwest counties. This activity should initially
be ahead of the cold front and will pose a threat for damaging
winds and large hail. Farther east, across our northeast counties,
low level flow will be a little more backed and there will be at
least a brief window for a low end threat of a tornado during the
late evening hours when the low level jet strengthens a bit. These
briefly favorable wind fields will veer quickly ahead of the front
as it spreads southward across the Red River. Convection will
increase in coverage through the late night hours along and behind
the front with the overall severe weather threat decreasing some
into early Wednesday morning. All of this activity will continue
to move south into South Texas during the day Wednesday leaving
behind cooler and slightly drier air. Near normal temperatures are
expected through the rest of the week and into next weekend.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/
VFR is expected to prevail through the period with only low
chances for additional convection this afternoon/evening. South
winds 15-20 kt are expected through the period but will begin to
veer a bit late in the period ahead of an approaching cold front.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of this
front late Tuesday afternoon mainly northwest of the major
airports, but convective chances will increase sharply just beyond
the current TAF period. Northwest winds will follow the frontal
passage late Tuesday night and continue into Wednesday.
Dunn
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    95  76  96  72  83 /  60   0  10  80  50
Waco                96  75  96  74  83 /   0   0   5  50  70
Paris               90  73  93  70  82 /  50   5  20  80  50
Denton              94  74  95  68  83 /  90   5  20  80  40
McKinney            93  75  95  71  83 /  90   5  10  80  50
Dallas              95  76  96  73  84 /  60   0  10  70  50
Terrell             94  73  94  72  83 /  40   0   5  70  60
Corsicana           94  76  95  75  85 /  20   0   5  60  70
Temple              95  73  96  73  85 /   0   0   5  40  70
Mineral Wells       96  73  97  69  83 /   5   5  20  80  50
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion